Additional Napoli - Arsenal bet

Hello again,
I was thinking about the game and I feel this is the perfect chance for Theo Walcott to score. He already should be fully fit, he will most probably start and surely there will be a lot space to exploit. Especially at the end of the game, when Napoli will most likely have to push. This is the reason I am adding another bet for the game:

Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Theo Walcott to score anytime
Odds: 4.33 @ William Hill
Stake:2/10

Good luck everyone

Weekend recap and a Champions League pick

Hi guys,
As you probably noticed, I didn't put more picks for this weekend, cause I was somewhat insecure and didn't want to risk it with bets, that I am not sure there is value in. However, my only pick that Newcastle won't lose at Old Trafford was a success as the Magpies even managed to win. This means the bad start is now behind me. Now it is time for a bet in the Champions League:


Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal + 0AH
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The Gunner are in great shape and need just a point in order to win the group. Napoli on the other hand, will have to win by 3 goals to be certain of qualification and are not doing great recently with only 1 win in 5 games and a lot of goals conceded. This makes me think the home team will have to push hard from the start and will leave a lot of space in the back. The Gooners are very solid in defense and more than capable to keep to take advantage on the counter. This is the reason I am expecting a win for the visitors, but since they don't really need it and might settle for a draw, I am going for the safer DNB bet. As for the team news - both teams will use their best and Arsene Wenger specifically said he won't rest players.

Good luck :)

Terrible start and the new picks for midweek

Hi guys,
Unfortunately, the restart of the blog was pretty bad with all three bets losing. The Arsenal pick was quite accurate, but two late goals from the Gunners meant the bet is lost, while the other two were rather misjudged on my side. I really though Fulham will put an effort in order to save Martin Jol, but that was not the case and in spite of some good chances, there were no goals in the Villa game.
However, I am here for the long run profit, so 3 lost bets won't bring me down :) There is a good chance of making up this week with a bunch of matches, so here we go:

Event: Arsenal - Hull City
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 AH
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I rarely put 10/10, but I am quite shocked by the odds in this one. Arsenal are flying at the moment with both their defense and offense working very well. There are a number of players that can score and the defense managed 5 clean sheets in the last 6 games. On the other hand, despite a decent start of the season and recent win against Liverpool, Hull does not seem like a team that can stop the Gunners. The odds seem great, so this is my main bet for the day.


Event: West Brom - Man City
Pick: West Brom + 1 AH
Odds: 2.01 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Once again, after a good victory at home bookies seem to think Man City will start winning away too. Well, I thought the same way after the huge win against ManU and a bunch of other great games at home, but the fact is City are not doing well away from Etihad. In fact, they lost a number of points away against weaker teams than West Brom. This is the reason why I believe the home side could take something from the game today and the odds for this line seem insane to me. The only reason why I am not putting 10 units here too is that I hate to make two max stake bets at the same time.


I really like some of the other games too, but I prefer to wait for the teams and add some live bets, since there might be some rotation today.

Best of luck :)

Premier League Tips for the weekend

Hi guys,
As promised yesterday, I am starting to support the blog again and today I will post my first picks for this season. So, after some careful consideration, here are my suggestions:

Event: Aston Villa - Sunderland
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: If you look at the last few games of both teams, you will find mostly unders which probably explains the good odds for this match. However, I feel there is a perfectly reasonable explanation - Villa had issues with the fitness of the likes of Benteke and Agbonlahor, I think Weimann also wasn't fully fit and this caused them problems with scoring goals. I think they are fine now and this should mean more attacking strength for the home side. On the other hand, Sunderland are playing much better since Gus Poyet is their manager, but they suffered some bad luck with referee decisions which meant they had to play most of their games very tight with 10 men and hope to get something. Despite that, they've shown tremendous improvement in their style and are now passing the ball much better and creating some good chances. I think it is time for their bad luck to end and I expect that both teams will score today and one of them at least twice, which will be enough to cover the line I chose.


Event: Cardiff - Arsenal
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I really like the spirit of the home side, they've shown they've got that battling mentality and also some good quality and I think they have a decent chance of surviving in the League. However, today they are facing a very strong Arsenal team that looks phenomenal this season. As you would expect, the odds for the Gunners are pretty low, so I think I will go for the unders here. Arsenal managed 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games - their defense is very solid, very drilled and Szczesny is probably the keeper in best form in the league right now. Considering the tough schedule with two games per week the EPL leaders are not afraid to rely on their defense and not put too much effort. Also, their away record is great and they really haven't conceded more than once away this season, which is a great achievement. This makes me think the Gunners will manage to win again with a clean sheet and the price for that is great.

The Pole in goal is great this season.

Event: West Ham - Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 AH
Odds: 3.54 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Many people will probably be surprised by this pick, since Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league this year. This is obviously true, but both of the team's wins came away from home and West Ham are probably the worst side at home and haven't won a game since the opening weekend. Also, this is one of the last chances of Martin Jol to save his job and this makes me think it will be a close game and the visitors might just nick it and the odds for the DNB are looking great to me.

Jol needs to win some points or he is finished.

Well, this is it for now guys. I wish you good luck and enjoy the Premier League this weekend :)

Capital One Cup pick

Hi guys,

I am sorry I didn't write in the past few days, but I had a problem with one of my teeth and I had to deal with it. However, I am back now and it is time for a Capital One Cup pick:

Pick 82
Event: Bradford-Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 AH
Odds: 2.12 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Arsenal's best chance of trophy this year is exactly the Capital One Cup, since the team already reached the quarter finals and the only team of their calibre left is Chelsea. Arsene Wenger will used a mixed squad once again, but there will be some decent quality in the starting eleven. I expect the likes of Arshavin, Jenkinson and Santos to play as also some other first team players. Despite the fact Bradford had conceded only six in their League 2 games, the difference in class is huge and also if they are down by 1, they would probably open up and try to draw and the fast, hungry Arsenal youngsters can hit them on the counter.


Good luck everyone :)

Champions league picks and final Premier league prediction

Hi guys,
It wasn't the best weekend, cause Man City didn't do enough to win against Everton despite some late chances, but Southampton lost with just a single goal against Liverpool, so this meant a half win there returned some cash. As you have probably have seen in my last post, I was a little bit ahead from live betting too, so basically it was a break even weekend. It is now time to take a look at the last game in the Premier League and also the last group matches in the Champions League:

Pick 74
Event: Newcastle - Wigan Athletic
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.53 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis:  Newcastle are having a number of problems lately, mostly because of the huge amount of injuries in a very bad time of the season. They have lost four games in a row and they are now just 2 points above the relegation zone, so they desperately need points. However, they still will miss a number of players and Wigan are in a rather decent shape recently. This makes me think the draw here is very possible options. The hosts will really want to win this game and I expect them to be fully motivated, but with some key defenders and midfielders out, Wigan should be able to take a point here. Small stakes, since draws are very risky as always.


Pick 75
Event: Olympiacos - Arsenal
Pick: Olympiacos +0.25AH
Odds: 1.87 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I don't like betting against my favorite team, but I just can't miss this one. Arsenal is in a terrible shape lately and most importantly, many of the players look jaded. In his post match interview at the weekend Wenger hinted he will probably rest some of his boys. This would be the logical choice considering the fact Arsenal is already qualified and their finishing position wouldn't make such a big difference for the knockouts when you look at the other groups.


This is it for now, but I believe there are some other possible bets in the CL and I will write another post about it tomorrow, good luck everyone :)

Decent Tuesday and more Champions League

Hello guys,
Yesterday was a rather good day with two bets won and one lost. The main bet of the evening was on Shakhtar -1.25 and despite some early troubles, the Ukrainians won comfortably at the end for a good profit. Galata also did the job and beat Man United, but Benfica and Celtic ruined the perfect day. The hosts had a number of chances throughout the game, but only managed to win 2:1, however I am happy with my bet and I feel there was value, but luck wasn't on our side this time.
Today the Champions league continues and it is time for some more picks:


Pick 60
Event: Zenit - Malaga
Pick: Malaga +0.5 AH
Odds: 2.21 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Malaga have already qualified for the next stage of the tournament, but Pellegrini insists he won't take this game lightly, especially considering the fact a point here will be enough to secure the first place in the group. The Spanish side has some absentees for this game, but still come with a very decent squad. The Russians are also expected to field a strong squad, but there are some doubtful players with a knocks like Hulk, Bystrov and others. To be honest, I feel Malaga is obviously the better team here despite the circumstances and I feel they can get something from this game, the stats are also on their side - they lost just one away game in UEFA competitions, so I don't think they will lose again here.

Pick 61
Event: Arsenal - Montpellier
Pick: Arsenal -1.25 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The visitors are already out of the competition, while the other three teams in the group will be fighting for their place in the knockout stages. Arsenal will surely need a win here and considering how important the tournament for Arsene Wenger is, I expect full commitment from the gunners. They are rather strong at home and their confidence should be once again high after demolishing local rival Tottenham last weekend. In terms of team news there are both good and bad news for the London side - Walcott is out of this match with a shoulder injury, but left back Gibbs is back, as well as Gervinho. I really think the return of Gibbs will make a huge impact on this game, because since his injury  the left flank isn't working well and Podolski is struggling. As for the visitors their main goal will be to keep their pride and their slim chances to play in Europa League. They will surely miss Belhanda because of suspension and got some players who are doubtful for the game. To be honest, I can't see anything but an Arsenal win here and I think it will be with more than a goal.

I have some thoughts about the other games too, but I can't seem to find a good bet for now, once again, I will probably go for some live bets. Good luck everyone :)

More Premier League picks for the weekend

Hi guys,

With some more team news available today I will add some more picks for the Premier League. Here we go:


Pick 53
Event: Arsenal - Tottenham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: Normally, the North London derby is full of goals, you just have to take a look at results in recent years and you will find stuff like 5:2, 3:2, 3:3, 4:4 etc. Considering the condition of the two sides, I believe a high scoring game is again quite possible. Arsenal are finding their shape upfront, but they started conceding a lot recently, while Tottenham also seem unable to keep a clean sheet. This makes me think this could be the next classic game between the two rivals and I really like the odds for overs here.

Pick 54
Event: QPR - Southampton
Pick: Southampton +0 AH
Odds: 2.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The bottom two teams face each other in a match, that is absolutely crucial. The visitors are basically with their best squad here and QPR have some long term absentees and captain Park is doubtful about the game. I expect a really tough battle, but to be honest, I like the Saints more from both teams and I feel they are the better side here despite their obvious leaks. They seem unable to score enough despite the many chances created and are not solid enough in defense, but still they have shown some great stuff throughout the season and if they manage to find some consistency in the game, they could snatch the victory. On the other hand, QPR is full with many decent players, but seem to struggle in all areas of the pitch - they concede too many goals, the midfield finds it hard to keep the ball when needed and create enough chances and the forwards don't score enough. Of course, this is a big chance for them to make it right at home against the Saints, but this works vice versa and I am sure that the visitors will be very motivated too. That is why I am taking the DNB option for the Saints and I feel they could do the job here.

I feel Hughes will stay really worried after this match.

This is it for now, I will write some picks probably and there is F1 this weekend, so stay tuned. Good luck everyone :)

English Premier league picks for the weekend

Hello guys,
With the international friendlies gone it is time to concentrate on this weekend's Premier League matches. After last week wasn't too good for me, it is time to compensate and make some money. So here are the first bets:

Pick 51
Event: Arsenal - Tottenham
Pick: Theo Walcott to score anytime
Odds: 3.40 @ Skybet
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Well,  the North London derby is coming and as Arsenal supporter I sincerely hope to see the Gunners win. It won't be easy though and one of the players that could be instrumental in this game is Theo. He is in great shape, scored and assisted a bunch of goals since the start of the season even without playing as a starter regularly. Last time around he scored two goals against Tottenham and with the first choice left back Assou-Ekotto out of this game, I think the odds for Walcott to score are very good. I will take the 3.40 gladly with a small bet.

I hope to see Theo scoring and the Emirates rocking again.

Pick 52
Event: Reading - Everton
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.27 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: After thinking about Everton recently, I reached an interesting conclusion. It seems to me the teams are now fearing them because of the great shape since the start of the season and they go out parking the bus at Goodison. This leads to less chances and less goals for the Toffees compared to their games away, where teams feel obliged to play more open in front of their home crowd. This makes me think the high flying Everton side will be manage to create a lot of chances against the shaky Reading defense. On the other side, Reading recently showed they can score goals too and despite the 0:0 draw against Norwich last week, I feel this game will offer a lot of goals.


This is it for today, but I am having some more ideas, so expect more picks tomorrow, good luck everyone :)

Profitable Thursday and Premier League picks

Hi guys,

Yesterday was another good day, that brought me some profit. The late pick on Anzhi was won, although not too convincingly, while Lazio did the job against Panathinaikos. Elsewhere Atletico Madrid didn't manage to score, but still two bets won, one lost and some more cash in the bank. For today I have a pick on Middlesbrough, that I published and with the weekend knocking at the door, it is time to concentrate one the Premier League:

Pick 45
Event: Arsenal - Fulham
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: The bookies continue giving good odds for unders on Arsenal home games and I continue to struggle understanding the reason for this. Arsenal's main problem currently is the lack of ideas and fresh legs upfront and with the list with injured and suspended players they have, I don't think it will get any better. On the other hand, their defense may seem suspect on some occasions, but in the Premier League they have conceded just 9 goals, most of them against quality teams. In their home games against mid or low table opponents, they look good. I expect the same against Fulham - the visitors won't park the bus, but still they will try to defend mostly, so I can't see them putting too much pressure on the gunners. On the other side of the pitch I expect the hosts to struggle to create many chances, so my general opinion is it will be a tight game. The under 3 line offers some insurance and the odds seem very good to me, so I will give it a shot.

Santi is one of the many Arsenal players that look tired.

Pick 46
Event: Everton - Sunderland
Pick: Everton -1 EH
Odds: 2.50 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Everton are probably playing the most exciting football in the Premier League. They are extremely dangerous upfront and are creating a lot of chances. Against Fulham last week they probably had like 10 clear cut chances and only the lack of luck and a number of misses prevented them from winning the game. At home against a poor Sunderland team I am more than confident they will again create a lot of opportunities, let's hope they don't miss so much this time.


This is it for now, tomorrow I will probably post some more pick, good luck to everyone :)

Crazy, crazy Arsenal and Capital One Cup day two

Hi guys,

Yesterday's matches in Capital One Cup weren't exactly successful in terms of betting, but being Arsenal fan I can't say I didn't enjoy it, lol. The 7:5 win against Reading was probably one of the most extraordinary games of football I have ever seen in my life. I am literally speechless and I believe I won't forget this game ever.

Theo showed he is worth a new contract.

As for the betting, the day wasn't that good. My bets on Arsenal were lost as also the one on Wigan covering a handicap. However, Leeds managed to beat Southampton which compensates some of the losses and it wasn't that bad after all.
For today I already have a bet on Chelsea (0AH), and I like two more bets with big odds and small stakes:

Pick 24
Event: Norwich - Tottenham
Pick: Draw (Norwich + 1EH)
Odds: 4.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Both teams are expected to field a weakened team for this match as most of Premier League teams do in the competition. I feel it will be a very close game and I can't really find some value in the more common markets. However, I believe Spurs will be able to just win it and I really like the odds for them doing so by one goal margin.

Pick 25
Event: Liverpool - Swansea
Pick: Liverpool - 2EH
Odds: 5.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Well, this bet is based on the improved performance of the Liverpool youngsters recently. They are showing some really good stuff and have been performing very well in the domestic cups for the past two years. Also, Swansea are clearly having issues in defense and that is why I believe they could get trashed here and a small bet on -2 EH is worth a shot.

Best of luck to every one :)

Two final bets on Capital One Cup

Hi guys,

I was thinking about the Arsenal game tonight, reading about the squad and stuff and I have two more picks for this evening. Looking at the odds, I feel small bets on Serge Gnabry and Thomas Eisfeld to score anytime are a good option. Both players have been very impressive in the pre season, in under 21 games and also in the first leg of Capital one cup and I really feel one of them could be on the score sheet tonight. Small stakes for both, here are the details:

Picks 22 and 23
Event: Reading - Arsenal
Pick: Gnabry to score anytime ; Thomas Eisfeld to score anytime
Odds: 4.33 @ 888 sport ; 5.50 @ Skybet
Stake: 3/10 ; 2/10

I feel the two youngsters can score again today.

 Good luck everyone :)

Some more picks for Capital One Cup

Hi guys,

I was looking at the odds for the other Capital One Cup matches and I found some bets I think contain some value. Here are two quick picks for today:

Pick 20
Event: Chelsea - Manchester United
Pick: Chelsea 0 AH
Odds: 1.70 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the emotions in the two teams. After the terrible referee decisions on Sunday Chelsea were left very frustrated and angry. I think they will do their best to revenge and this will give them some extra motivation to win the game.

Terrible performance on Sunday by Clattenburg.

Pick 21
Event: Reading - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal
Odds: 1.91 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: I was wondering if I should take this bet, but the good Arsenal record in the League Cup and the fact they have won five out of five games against Reading made up my mind. The Gooners will probably have a balanced line up with seniors like Koscielny, Jenkinsons, Coquelin, Arshavin involved as well as some very promising youngsters like Martinez, Eisfeld and Gnabri. On the other hand Reading are really struggling in the Premier League and this should be their top priority.

Europa league results and first picks for the weekend

Hi guys,

It was a dramatic Europa League evening with many late goals and some picks won and lost in the last minutes of the game. Overall, it was a good day and it ended up with 3 bets won and 2 lost and some decent profit.
The under 2.5 on San Siro won easily with Inter struggling to find a way past Partizan till the end of the game, and the most dangerous moment was in the first half when the Serbian side hit the bar. Elsewhere Genk managed to beat Sporting, despite falling behind early and that brought a nice profit, while Helsingborg and Hannover left it very late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 goal line. However, the luck in this game was compensated by the stupid way Athletico Madrid conceded at the end of their game despite being solid through the whole match. The other bet lost was the low stake on Maribor to beat Tottenham - the hosts took the lead, but didn't manage to hold on to it. I probably should've taken some AH bet for this game, cause it was the safer option, but I will be more careful in the future.

So, with the European competitions gone it is time for some betting on domestic leagues. Here are my first picks for this weekend:

Pick 11
Event: Southampton - Tottenham
Pick: Gareth Bale to score anytime
Odds: 3.00 @ 888Sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The traditional and more common reasoning behind this bet is simple - Southampton have the worst defense in the league and Tottenham are playing very well recently. The Saints are conceding many goals this season even at home, while the visitors are in top shape. Bale in particular is in good form and he missed the last two games, so he should be fresh for this one. However, there is another angle here, that makes me think there is value here. The Welsh star is now a proud father after last weekend and I feel he will be willing to score a goal and dedicate it to his child as most football players do. This will make him want to find the net even more and this extra motivation is the reason I am going for this bet.

I hope the newborn daughter will give Bale something extra.

Pick 12
Event: Arsenal - QPR
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I am quite surprised by the odds of under 3 for this game for numerous reasons. First of all, Arsenal's biggest problem currently is the lack of fresh legs upfront. In their last two games against Norwich and Schalke they didn't create enough chances, in fact they did not create any chances. Despite the possible return of some players, I can't see huge difference for this game. Also, I expect QPR to lie deep in their own half with a very negative tactics and I think Arsenal might be able to keep a clean sheet here. In general, my expectations are for a hard fought home win lie 1:0, 2:0 max. Still, I am taking the under 3 line, since it is more safe and the odds are still very good.

Pick 13
Event: Stoke - Sunderland
Pick. Stoke to win
Odds: 2.10 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: After two away games good old Stoke are playing at home against  a rather inconsistent Sunderland side. This is a great chance for the hosts to climb up the table and I think they will be able to expose the defensive weakness in their opponents. As for the other side of the pitch - Sunderland look toothless and were lucky to score against a 10-men Newcastle and I think Stoke can contain them. Full stake for a home win.


This is it for today, I will probably post some more picks tomorrow morning, good luck everyone :)

CL recap and two more picks for Europa League

Hello guys,

The second day of the Champions League competition wasn't very good with two picks lost and one won. PSG did the job and won 2:0 which made a decent profit, but Arsenal and City both lost their matches and the end result of the first four picks is a small profit. I probably shouldn't have bet on Arsenal, but their home record in Europe mislead me. As for City, clearly they are currently just a domestic side, very surprising considering the amount of world class players they have though.
I hope for a better luck today with Europa League and I have two more picks for the competition:

Pick 9
Event: Atletico Madrid - Academica
Pick: Atletico to win to nil
Odds: 1.83 @ SkyBet
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Everybody expect the very solid Atletico to win at home against Academica and I think the same. However, the odds for that are quite low and are not worth the shot imo. On the other hand, the solid defense of the Spaniards recently makes me think they should be able to keep a clean sheet and is the reason I am taking the 1.83 for a win to nil at SkyBet. Academica have scored in most of their recent games, but still they haven't faced such a good team as Atletico and that makes me think the hosts should be able to do the job.

The man is flying, but I hope the defense does the job tonight.

Pick 10
Event: Inter Milan - Partizan
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.12 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I feel Partizan will go to Italy and try to get a point with deep defense. The Italians are not doing very well upfront and I don't think they will be able to cover the line themselves and Partizan are also rather weak. My only concern is an early goal, but hopefully there won't be any, so I will try this bet.

This is it for today, good luck everyone :)

Time for Europa League

Hi guys,

The first pick in this blog was successful and I hope this is a good sign :) Spartak and Benfica did the job in the first half and the bet on over 2.5 is a win. Today we will see what happens with the other CL picks, but now it is time for some Europa League. After taking a deep look at some stats and info about the games, here is what I find attractive as odds:

Pick 5
Event: Genk - Sporting Lisboa
Pick: Genk +0 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the shape of the two teams in both domestic and European competitions. Genk are unbeaten in a number of games and are doing very well especially at home. Sporting on the other hand got dumped from the Portuguese cup, got beaten by Porto and were also demolished by Videoton in the last round of Europa League. Obviously, they are not in their best shape and this is why I think the home side is the favorite here. I am taking the AH bet, since it is the safer option and the bet will be void in a case of a draw.

Pick 6
Event: Helsingborg - Hannover
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams seem more than capable of scoring in both their domestic leagues and in Europe. The visitors managed to score twice in both of their first two games and also conceded at least a goal in five of their last six games. Helsingborg on the other hand manage to score at least a goal in most of their home games, so I expect them do it again here. This makes me think there will be some goals in this game and the odds in Pini look good value to me.

Pick 7
Event: Maribor - Tottenham
Pick: Maribor
Odds: 5.41 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Well, this pick may seem strange to many, but I feel that the hosts can produce a surprise here. They are playing very well at home in European competitions and as most Eastern European teams they are highly motivated to perform well in this tournament. This is not the case with the English club, and although manager Villas Boas says it is important to him and also picks strong sides, the players attitude is different and the biggest proof is the stupid draw against a very weak Panathinaikos team. This is why I find the odds for a home win pretty good and I will give it a shot with a small stake.

Villas Boas is highly motivated, but what about his players?

While I was looking at the odds for Europa League I couldn't help to see the odds for Arsenal win today too and this is why I am adding another pick for CL here:

Pick 8
Event: Arsenal - Schalke
Pick: Arsenal to win
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: It is obvious that Schalke are in good shape, while Arsenal are having some issues currently, but still 2.15 seems too high. The Gunners are the better team in general, they play very well at home and they haven't lost there for ages (in CL of course) and they are much more experienced in the competition. I just don't feel the price is right here and that is why I am taking the bet.

This is it, good luck to everyone and don't hesitate to share your opinion :)

Let's Rock'N Roll!

Hello dear readers,

I assume I am talking to myself since this is my first post in the blog and no one will be reading it, but you gotta start somehow:) The idea of this blog is to post my sports betting picks, and I hope this will help me be more disciplined, to keep a good tracking record of my picks and eventually find some other tipsters with whom I could share ideas and picks.
I won't be revealing much information about myself, except for a fact I am proud Arsenal supporter :) I will bet mostly on football and rarely on other sports like Formula 1, Tennis, Volleyball and other stuff. I will use variable stakes and although I don't have a mathematical system behind my bets, I won't try to predict the outcome of games, I will try to evaluate them and find markets, that contain value, since I believe this is the only way to make money:) That and having some inside info about fixed games, but since I don't have such, I will have to do it the hard way :)
I think this short introduction is enough and it is time to start with the serious part - there is Champions League this week and I can see some great picks available:

Pick 1
Event: Zenit - Anderlecht
Pick: Zenit (-1 EH)
Odds: 2.50 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I can't resist to get max stakes here, since the hosts really need this win in order to keep some chances of going through to the knockout stage. Zenit is the much better team in paper and despite the bad start, they are showing signs of improvement and should be able to win this game comfortably. It is also good to mention that the two teams met in the Europa League group stage last year and the Russians won both games with 3:1.

I hope Hulk is in good shape :)

Pick 2
Event: Dinamo Zagreb - PSG
Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 2.63 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Everybody is expecting PSG to win here and you ca easily see why - they are the better team and they desperately need the points. However, the odds for win are not too high and I am not sure there is value in them. That is why I prefer the option PSG to win to nil - Dinamo have no goals yet, they seem pretty toothless and the defense of the French team is solid. Big stakes, since I think the value is good.

Pick 3
Event: Ajax - Manchester City
Pick: Manchester City to win
Odds: 1.80 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Man City managed to somehow get a point from the game against Dortmund and this was really vital, since it keeps their chances to go to the knockout stages. However, they have to take 6 points from the two games with Ajax in order to be in a good position. They are the much better team and the morale is great after the had fought victory against West Brom at the weekend. That is why I think odds of 1.8 are good enough to go for it.

Joe Hart is the main reason City got a point in their last CL game.

Pick 4
Event: Spartak Moscow - Benfica
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams are with their back against the wall and need to win this, especially the Russians. They played decent games against Celtic and Barca, but got beaten in both of them with late goals. It seems they are capable of scoring, but also concede easily and Benfica has the fire power to capitalize. I expect a tough and open game with many goals, since the losing side is out and a draw is no good for both teams.


This is it for today, I will probably post my Europa League pick tomorrow and will try to find some more value in the CL :)

Good luck!