Hi guys,
Once again my rather bad streak recently continued on Wednesday. Everyone expected West Brom to fail at some point, but the way they were beaten against Swansea was kinda surprising. Also, I obviously underestimated Benitez as he managed to transform Chelsea for a very short time and now they seem very dull, but steady at the back. Still, the Saints and Norwich drew their game, which returned some money back. Bad day in general, but now the weekend is coming and there is a good chance to win some cash. Here are my tips for the forthcoming Premier League games:
Pick 72
Event: Liverpool - Southampton
Pick: Southampton +1.25 AH
Odds: 1.98 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Despite the fact there is some progress in Liverpool, the Reds still have lots of problems and generally are not playing too well. They've managed to win by more than one goal just twice since the start of the season and they have a number of draws and narrows wins at home for a third consecutive season. On the other hand, the visitors are in a good shape currently and haven't lost 4 games in a roll in the league. I think they might get a point here, but even if they don't I feel they won't get beaten too convincingly and this line could return half win.
Pick 73
Event: Manchester City - Everton
Pick: Manchester City -1AH
Odds: 1.91 @ 188bet
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I think the key for this bet is squad depth. This is a third game for both teams inside a week, so there will be some tired legs and the team with more freshness will have a big advantage. I don't think there is any doubt who that is and the strong home form and much longer bench City are the clear favorite here. As for Everton - they look very tired in the last 20 minutes against Arsenal on Wednesday and for this game they surely miss skipper Neville, while the likes of Baynes, Miralas and Coleman are carrying a knocks and are not 100% sure for the game. This makes me think the value is on City, especially considering the fact they started keeping clean sheets recently and their defense starts to look as solid as last year.
This is it for now, but I might add another bet for Saturday later today or tomorrow and I will probably have some Sunday picks too, so stay tuned. Good luck!
Showing posts with label liverpool. Show all posts
Showing posts with label liverpool. Show all posts
Friday, November 30, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Final Europa League bet
Hello again guys,
The movement in the odds for the Anzhi game just made pick another bet for tonight:
Pick 44
Event: Anzhi - Liverpool
Pick: Anzhi -0.5 AH
Odds: 1.943 @ Pinnacle
Stake:4/10
Analysis: I was considering the bet at around 1.80, but rejected it and now the odds have risen significantly, surpassing the 1.90 mark, so I can't help it. Liverpool will miss most of their first team players and although Anzhi have some absent players themselves, I think the value is on them, so a mid stakes bet is worth a shot.
GL all :)
The movement in the odds for the Anzhi game just made pick another bet for tonight:
Pick 44
Event: Anzhi - Liverpool
Pick: Anzhi -0.5 AH
Odds: 1.943 @ Pinnacle
Stake:4/10
Analysis: I was considering the bet at around 1.80, but rejected it and now the odds have risen significantly, surpassing the 1.90 mark, so I can't help it. Liverpool will miss most of their first team players and although Anzhi have some absent players themselves, I think the value is on them, so a mid stakes bet is worth a shot.
GL all :)
Europa League and early England picks
Hi guys,
Yesterday was another fine day with my two medium stakes bets winning and only the small stakes one losing. As I expected, Chelsea and Shakhtar scored a lot of goals and the over 3 line was already surpassed before the 60th minute of the game and Juve won convincingly, which brought me a nice profit. The only small disappointment came in Portugal, where it was looking like my bet for a draw is on course of winning with 10 minutes to go, but two late goals from Man United meant it was lost. At the end of the day it was a solid profit though, so I am pretty happy. Today I will post you my Europa League picks, but also two early picks for English leagues this weekend. Here we go:
Pick 40
Event: Chelsea - Liverpool
Pick: Chelsea -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This is a pure value bet and I really can't understand the odds. I mean, do I even have to explain it - Chelsea are the best team since the start of the league, they are playing very well and they have no serious injuries. On the other hand, Liverpool is a team who will struggle to get into top 6 and is in general way worse than the Blues. I still can't figure out why the bookies are giving such odds for home win, I believe that if it was another club besides Liverpool with the same players and same performance the odds would've been around 1.60. Full stake here.
Pick 41
Event: Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday
Pick: Middlesbrough -0.5AH
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I was thinking about this bet yesterday, when I saw the odds for Middlesbrough. In my opinion, the odds for a home win are too high, since the hosts are in a very decent shape - they won five out of their last 6 and managed to draw away in midweek. They have ambitions to fight for promotion and should win most of their home games against weaker sides, if they wish to do so. Sheffield Wednesday on the other hand were in a great shape too, but it ended this week when they were beaten 2:0 at home by Blackpool. They are now sitting 20th in the table and I believe the difference in class and momentum makes the odds for home win tempting enough to try a bet.
Pick 42
Event: Lazio - Panathinaikos
Pick: Lazio to win
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Lazio missed the win in the dying minutes of the game in Greece, but I feel they won't do it today. They are the better team in general and they were cautious in the weekend in their Seria A game, in order to keep fresh for this clash. The home advantage and the difference in class should be enough in this game.
Pick 43:
Event: Academica - Atletico Madrid
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.82 @ Interwetten
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: I expected Atletico to keep a clean sheet in the first leg, but they didn't manage to do so and I now believe they won't be able to do it in Portugal. Both teams have great attacking players and I feel they should be able to both score. As always, Interwetten are late and other bookies give much lower price on this market, which is another good indication. Not a big stake though, since Atletico are almost through and their motivation is somewhat questionable.
This is it for today, good luck everyone.
Yesterday was another fine day with my two medium stakes bets winning and only the small stakes one losing. As I expected, Chelsea and Shakhtar scored a lot of goals and the over 3 line was already surpassed before the 60th minute of the game and Juve won convincingly, which brought me a nice profit. The only small disappointment came in Portugal, where it was looking like my bet for a draw is on course of winning with 10 minutes to go, but two late goals from Man United meant it was lost. At the end of the day it was a solid profit though, so I am pretty happy. Today I will post you my Europa League picks, but also two early picks for English leagues this weekend. Here we go:
Pick 40
Event: Chelsea - Liverpool
Pick: Chelsea -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This is a pure value bet and I really can't understand the odds. I mean, do I even have to explain it - Chelsea are the best team since the start of the league, they are playing very well and they have no serious injuries. On the other hand, Liverpool is a team who will struggle to get into top 6 and is in general way worse than the Blues. I still can't figure out why the bookies are giving such odds for home win, I believe that if it was another club besides Liverpool with the same players and same performance the odds would've been around 1.60. Full stake here.
Pick 41
Event: Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday
Pick: Middlesbrough -0.5AH
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I was thinking about this bet yesterday, when I saw the odds for Middlesbrough. In my opinion, the odds for a home win are too high, since the hosts are in a very decent shape - they won five out of their last 6 and managed to draw away in midweek. They have ambitions to fight for promotion and should win most of their home games against weaker sides, if they wish to do so. Sheffield Wednesday on the other hand were in a great shape too, but it ended this week when they were beaten 2:0 at home by Blackpool. They are now sitting 20th in the table and I believe the difference in class and momentum makes the odds for home win tempting enough to try a bet.
Pick 42
Event: Lazio - Panathinaikos
Pick: Lazio to win
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Lazio missed the win in the dying minutes of the game in Greece, but I feel they won't do it today. They are the better team in general and they were cautious in the weekend in their Seria A game, in order to keep fresh for this clash. The home advantage and the difference in class should be enough in this game.
Pick 43:
Event: Academica - Atletico Madrid
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.82 @ Interwetten
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: I expected Atletico to keep a clean sheet in the first leg, but they didn't manage to do so and I now believe they won't be able to do it in Portugal. Both teams have great attacking players and I feel they should be able to both score. As always, Interwetten are late and other bookies give much lower price on this market, which is another good indication. Not a big stake though, since Atletico are almost through and their motivation is somewhat questionable.
This is it for today, good luck everyone.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Bad day in Capital One Cup and an early weekend pick
Hi guys,
The last two days showed me once again why the League Cup, currently called Capital One Cup just can't be trusted. Both Arsenal and Chelsea managed to create plenty of chances, but at the end of the day terrible defending made them chasing results to the very end of their matches. They managed to win at the end, but it was after extra time and that didn't do any good to my bets. Elsewhere Tottenham and Liverpool were surprised by Norwich and Swansea, which made the days even worse. On the good side of things, I was cautious and my stakes were low, so there is no big harm done :) Enough with the Capital One Cup, I have an early bet for the week, and I am putting it so early, cause the odds seem unreal and I don't think they will last:
Pick 26
Event: Liverpool - Newcastle
Pick: Newcastle +1AH
Odds: 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, I don't have much to say about this game, besides that this is great value. I mean, seriously, almost 2.00 for Newcastle to draw or win, returning the bet if they lose with only one goal? This can't be serious, I think the odds will drop till the game, so go for it while it is there.
The last two days showed me once again why the League Cup, currently called Capital One Cup just can't be trusted. Both Arsenal and Chelsea managed to create plenty of chances, but at the end of the day terrible defending made them chasing results to the very end of their matches. They managed to win at the end, but it was after extra time and that didn't do any good to my bets. Elsewhere Tottenham and Liverpool were surprised by Norwich and Swansea, which made the days even worse. On the good side of things, I was cautious and my stakes were low, so there is no big harm done :) Enough with the Capital One Cup, I have an early bet for the week, and I am putting it so early, cause the odds seem unreal and I don't think they will last:
Pick 26
Event: Liverpool - Newcastle
Pick: Newcastle +1AH
Odds: 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, I don't have much to say about this game, besides that this is great value. I mean, seriously, almost 2.00 for Newcastle to draw or win, returning the bet if they lose with only one goal? This can't be serious, I think the odds will drop till the game, so go for it while it is there.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Crazy, crazy Arsenal and Capital One Cup day two
Hi guys,
Yesterday's matches in Capital One Cup weren't exactly successful in terms of betting, but being Arsenal fan I can't say I didn't enjoy it, lol. The 7:5 win against Reading was probably one of the most extraordinary games of football I have ever seen in my life. I am literally speechless and I believe I won't forget this game ever.
As for the betting, the day wasn't that good. My bets on Arsenal were lost as also the one on Wigan covering a handicap. However, Leeds managed to beat Southampton which compensates some of the losses and it wasn't that bad after all.
For today I already have a bet on Chelsea (0AH), and I like two more bets with big odds and small stakes:
Pick 24
Event: Norwich - Tottenham
Pick: Draw (Norwich + 1EH)
Odds: 4.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Both teams are expected to field a weakened team for this match as most of Premier League teams do in the competition. I feel it will be a very close game and I can't really find some value in the more common markets. However, I believe Spurs will be able to just win it and I really like the odds for them doing so by one goal margin.
Pick 25
Event: Liverpool - Swansea
Pick: Liverpool - 2EH
Odds: 5.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Well, this bet is based on the improved performance of the Liverpool youngsters recently. They are showing some really good stuff and have been performing very well in the domestic cups for the past two years. Also, Swansea are clearly having issues in defense and that is why I believe they could get trashed here and a small bet on -2 EH is worth a shot.
Best of luck to every one :)
Yesterday's matches in Capital One Cup weren't exactly successful in terms of betting, but being Arsenal fan I can't say I didn't enjoy it, lol. The 7:5 win against Reading was probably one of the most extraordinary games of football I have ever seen in my life. I am literally speechless and I believe I won't forget this game ever.
| Theo showed he is worth a new contract. |
As for the betting, the day wasn't that good. My bets on Arsenal were lost as also the one on Wigan covering a handicap. However, Leeds managed to beat Southampton which compensates some of the losses and it wasn't that bad after all.
For today I already have a bet on Chelsea (0AH), and I like two more bets with big odds and small stakes:
Pick 24
Event: Norwich - Tottenham
Pick: Draw (Norwich + 1EH)
Odds: 4.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Both teams are expected to field a weakened team for this match as most of Premier League teams do in the competition. I feel it will be a very close game and I can't really find some value in the more common markets. However, I believe Spurs will be able to just win it and I really like the odds for them doing so by one goal margin.
Pick 25
Event: Liverpool - Swansea
Pick: Liverpool - 2EH
Odds: 5.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Well, this bet is based on the improved performance of the Liverpool youngsters recently. They are showing some really good stuff and have been performing very well in the domestic cups for the past two years. Also, Swansea are clearly having issues in defense and that is why I believe they could get trashed here and a small bet on -2 EH is worth a shot.
Best of luck to every one :)
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Good Saturday and picks for Sunday
Hello guys,
The weekend started very well and I managed to land three out of four picks yesterday for a solid profit. As I expected the Arsenal - QPR game was very tight and the visitors tried a very negative tactics. They weren't many chances until late in the game and the home win with 1:0 was great for me both as a punter and an Arsenal supporter :) Elsewhere Reading and Fulham both score, actually three times each and Wigan and West Ham left it late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 line. For today I have Bale to score (published in the blog on Friday), but I think there is value in two more picks:
Pick 16
Event: Newcastle - West Brom
Pick: Newcastle to win
Odds: 2.00 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Newcastle are improving their shape recently and have 3 wins from 3 games in Europe and also played very well in the derby against Sunderland last week. They will only miss the suspended Tiote, while West Brom are missing skipper Brunt and Reid. West Brom are unconvincing away from home with three draws and a heavy loss against Fulham, so I believe the host will be able to win here.
Pick 17
Event: Everton - Liverpool
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.73 @ Bet365
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I expect a fierce derby of Merseyside and I wouldn't try to predict the outcome. Everton will miss Felainni and Pienaar, but still have a lot of fire power upfront and Liverpool are more stable recently. Skipper Gerrard normally plays his best games against Everton and ManU, and I expect the same today. I believe both teams will search for the victory and will manage to score goals.
The weekend started very well and I managed to land three out of four picks yesterday for a solid profit. As I expected the Arsenal - QPR game was very tight and the visitors tried a very negative tactics. They weren't many chances until late in the game and the home win with 1:0 was great for me both as a punter and an Arsenal supporter :) Elsewhere Reading and Fulham both score, actually three times each and Wigan and West Ham left it late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 line. For today I have Bale to score (published in the blog on Friday), but I think there is value in two more picks:
Pick 16
Event: Newcastle - West Brom
Pick: Newcastle to win
Odds: 2.00 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Newcastle are improving their shape recently and have 3 wins from 3 games in Europe and also played very well in the derby against Sunderland last week. They will only miss the suspended Tiote, while West Brom are missing skipper Brunt and Reid. West Brom are unconvincing away from home with three draws and a heavy loss against Fulham, so I believe the host will be able to win here.
| Tiote is out after a reckless tackle against Sunderland. |
Pick 17
Event: Everton - Liverpool
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.73 @ Bet365
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I expect a fierce derby of Merseyside and I wouldn't try to predict the outcome. Everton will miss Felainni and Pienaar, but still have a lot of fire power upfront and Liverpool are more stable recently. Skipper Gerrard normally plays his best games against Everton and ManU, and I expect the same today. I believe both teams will search for the victory and will manage to score goals.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)