Europa League and early England picks

Hi guys,
Yesterday was another fine day with my two medium stakes bets winning and only the small stakes one losing. As I expected, Chelsea and Shakhtar scored a lot of goals and the over 3 line was already surpassed before the 60th minute of the game and Juve won convincingly, which brought me a nice profit. The only small disappointment came in Portugal, where it was looking like my bet for a draw is on course of winning with 10 minutes to go, but two late goals from Man United meant it was lost. At the end of the day it was a solid profit though, so I am pretty happy. Today I will post you my Europa League picks, but also two early picks for English leagues this weekend. Here we go:

Pick 40
Event: Chelsea - Liverpool
Pick: Chelsea -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This is a pure value bet and I really can't understand the odds. I mean, do I even have to explain it - Chelsea are the best team since the start of the league, they are playing very well and they have no serious injuries. On the other hand, Liverpool is a team who will struggle to get into top 6 and is in general way worse than the Blues. I still can't figure out why the bookies are giving such odds for home win, I believe that if it was another club besides Liverpool with the same players and same performance the odds would've been around 1.60. Full stake here.

Pick 41
Event: Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday
Pick: Middlesbrough -0.5AH
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I was thinking about this bet yesterday, when I saw the odds for Middlesbrough. In my opinion, the odds for a home win are too high, since the hosts are in a very decent shape - they won five out of their last 6 and managed to draw away in midweek. They have ambitions to fight for promotion and should win most of their home games against weaker sides, if they wish to do so. Sheffield Wednesday on the other hand were in a great shape too, but it ended this week when they were beaten 2:0 at home by Blackpool. They are now sitting 20th in the table and I believe the difference in class and momentum makes the odds for home win tempting enough to try a bet.


Pick 42
Event: Lazio - Panathinaikos
Pick: Lazio to win
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Lazio missed the win in the dying minutes of the game in Greece, but I feel they won't do it today. They are the better team in general and they were cautious in the weekend in their Seria A game, in order to keep fresh for this clash. The home advantage and the difference in class should be enough in this game.

Pick 43:
Event: Academica - Atletico Madrid
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.82 @ Interwetten
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: I expected Atletico to keep a clean sheet in the first leg, but they didn't manage to do so and I now believe they won't be able to do it in Portugal. Both teams have great attacking players and I feel they should be able to both score. As always, Interwetten are late and other bookies give much lower price on this market, which is another good indication. Not a big stake though, since Atletico are almost through and their motivation is somewhat questionable.

This is it for today, good luck everyone.