Hi guys,
As I told you last week, I had some problem with my tooth and at the it turned I needed a minor operation to fix it, so I was away for some time. However, I am back and I can see two good early picks for this weekend:
Pick 83
Event: West Brom - Norwich
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ 188bet
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Well, West Brom are very solid at home, especially defensively and they manage to keep clean sheets quite often. On the other hand, Norwich are in a very good shape recently and one of the main reasons for that is their discipline and hard work. That makes me think it will be a close game and possibly there won't be too many goals in it.
Pick 84
Event: Chelsea - Aston Villa
Pick: Villa +1.5 AH
Odds: 2.00 @ 188bet
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: Villa are flying right now - they won against Norwich for Capital One, they destroyed Liverpool at Anfield this weekend and in general, the work of Paul Lambert is starting to pay off. On the other hand, Chelsea with Benitez is not too convincing and there will be possibly some tired legs after the World Cup they played recently. That makes me think Villa could take something from this game or at least lose with just a single goal, which suits us with this line.
Good luck everyone :)
Showing posts with label chelsea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chelsea. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
More Premier League picks
Hi guys,
The odds for my yesterday's pick on Sunderland was going up and down a little bit and currently is at 2.34 at Pinnacle, so you could even get bigger price than me, if you haven't bet yet. Today I have few more suggestions for the forthcoming games:
Pick 69 (good number :))
Event: Swansea - West Brom
Pick: West Brom +0.5 AH
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, there is not much to say about this game - West Brom are flying right now, they are solid at the back, they are very good in attack, they are disciplined, but also play with a lot of passion. In addition to that the manager actually substituted some of his players at the end of the game against Sunderland in order to keep them fresh. On the other hand, Swansea are in a terrible shape and seem unable to get more than a draw against solid teams, even at home. West Brom had some problems away at the start of the season, but now have two wins in a row, so I think the value is on them.
Pick 70
Event: Southampton - Norwich
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.69 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: This is a clash between two teams that started the season on a low, but are now in a great shape. The Saints now have two wins in their last games, while Norwich are unbeaten for quite some time. I think the disciplined team of the visitors will manage to take something from this game, but I don't expect them to manage to win. On the other hand, Southampton is playing well, so the draw here is a pretty logical choice at such high odds. Low to mid stakes though, since betting on a draw is always a risky choice.
Pick 71
Event: Chelsea - Fulham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Both teams are very generous in terms of conceding and scoring goals despite the fact their games this weekend finished 0:0 and 1:0. This was due to the tough opponents and the terrible weather. Although it is expected to rain again, I really think those two have the potential to have a goal fest on Tuesday. Biggest concern is the possible Benitez effect, but it is still too early about that.
This is it, the previews are shorter today, but I really didn't have the time to be more detailed, good luck everyone :)
The odds for my yesterday's pick on Sunderland was going up and down a little bit and currently is at 2.34 at Pinnacle, so you could even get bigger price than me, if you haven't bet yet. Today I have few more suggestions for the forthcoming games:
Pick 69 (good number :))
Event: Swansea - West Brom
Pick: West Brom +0.5 AH
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, there is not much to say about this game - West Brom are flying right now, they are solid at the back, they are very good in attack, they are disciplined, but also play with a lot of passion. In addition to that the manager actually substituted some of his players at the end of the game against Sunderland in order to keep them fresh. On the other hand, Swansea are in a terrible shape and seem unable to get more than a draw against solid teams, even at home. West Brom had some problems away at the start of the season, but now have two wins in a row, so I think the value is on them.
Pick 70
Event: Southampton - Norwich
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.69 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: This is a clash between two teams that started the season on a low, but are now in a great shape. The Saints now have two wins in their last games, while Norwich are unbeaten for quite some time. I think the disciplined team of the visitors will manage to take something from this game, but I don't expect them to manage to win. On the other hand, Southampton is playing well, so the draw here is a pretty logical choice at such high odds. Low to mid stakes though, since betting on a draw is always a risky choice.
Pick 71
Event: Chelsea - Fulham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Both teams are very generous in terms of conceding and scoring goals despite the fact their games this weekend finished 0:0 and 1:0. This was due to the tough opponents and the terrible weather. Although it is expected to rain again, I really think those two have the potential to have a goal fest on Tuesday. Biggest concern is the possible Benitez effect, but it is still too early about that.
This is it, the previews are shorter today, but I really didn't have the time to be more detailed, good luck everyone :)
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Europa League and early England picks
Hi guys,
Yesterday was another fine day with my two medium stakes bets winning and only the small stakes one losing. As I expected, Chelsea and Shakhtar scored a lot of goals and the over 3 line was already surpassed before the 60th minute of the game and Juve won convincingly, which brought me a nice profit. The only small disappointment came in Portugal, where it was looking like my bet for a draw is on course of winning with 10 minutes to go, but two late goals from Man United meant it was lost. At the end of the day it was a solid profit though, so I am pretty happy. Today I will post you my Europa League picks, but also two early picks for English leagues this weekend. Here we go:
Pick 40
Event: Chelsea - Liverpool
Pick: Chelsea -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This is a pure value bet and I really can't understand the odds. I mean, do I even have to explain it - Chelsea are the best team since the start of the league, they are playing very well and they have no serious injuries. On the other hand, Liverpool is a team who will struggle to get into top 6 and is in general way worse than the Blues. I still can't figure out why the bookies are giving such odds for home win, I believe that if it was another club besides Liverpool with the same players and same performance the odds would've been around 1.60. Full stake here.
Pick 41
Event: Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday
Pick: Middlesbrough -0.5AH
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I was thinking about this bet yesterday, when I saw the odds for Middlesbrough. In my opinion, the odds for a home win are too high, since the hosts are in a very decent shape - they won five out of their last 6 and managed to draw away in midweek. They have ambitions to fight for promotion and should win most of their home games against weaker sides, if they wish to do so. Sheffield Wednesday on the other hand were in a great shape too, but it ended this week when they were beaten 2:0 at home by Blackpool. They are now sitting 20th in the table and I believe the difference in class and momentum makes the odds for home win tempting enough to try a bet.
Pick 42
Event: Lazio - Panathinaikos
Pick: Lazio to win
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Lazio missed the win in the dying minutes of the game in Greece, but I feel they won't do it today. They are the better team in general and they were cautious in the weekend in their Seria A game, in order to keep fresh for this clash. The home advantage and the difference in class should be enough in this game.
Pick 43:
Event: Academica - Atletico Madrid
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.82 @ Interwetten
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: I expected Atletico to keep a clean sheet in the first leg, but they didn't manage to do so and I now believe they won't be able to do it in Portugal. Both teams have great attacking players and I feel they should be able to both score. As always, Interwetten are late and other bookies give much lower price on this market, which is another good indication. Not a big stake though, since Atletico are almost through and their motivation is somewhat questionable.
This is it for today, good luck everyone.
Yesterday was another fine day with my two medium stakes bets winning and only the small stakes one losing. As I expected, Chelsea and Shakhtar scored a lot of goals and the over 3 line was already surpassed before the 60th minute of the game and Juve won convincingly, which brought me a nice profit. The only small disappointment came in Portugal, where it was looking like my bet for a draw is on course of winning with 10 minutes to go, but two late goals from Man United meant it was lost. At the end of the day it was a solid profit though, so I am pretty happy. Today I will post you my Europa League picks, but also two early picks for English leagues this weekend. Here we go:
Pick 40
Event: Chelsea - Liverpool
Pick: Chelsea -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This is a pure value bet and I really can't understand the odds. I mean, do I even have to explain it - Chelsea are the best team since the start of the league, they are playing very well and they have no serious injuries. On the other hand, Liverpool is a team who will struggle to get into top 6 and is in general way worse than the Blues. I still can't figure out why the bookies are giving such odds for home win, I believe that if it was another club besides Liverpool with the same players and same performance the odds would've been around 1.60. Full stake here.
Pick 41
Event: Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday
Pick: Middlesbrough -0.5AH
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I was thinking about this bet yesterday, when I saw the odds for Middlesbrough. In my opinion, the odds for a home win are too high, since the hosts are in a very decent shape - they won five out of their last 6 and managed to draw away in midweek. They have ambitions to fight for promotion and should win most of their home games against weaker sides, if they wish to do so. Sheffield Wednesday on the other hand were in a great shape too, but it ended this week when they were beaten 2:0 at home by Blackpool. They are now sitting 20th in the table and I believe the difference in class and momentum makes the odds for home win tempting enough to try a bet.
Pick 42
Event: Lazio - Panathinaikos
Pick: Lazio to win
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Lazio missed the win in the dying minutes of the game in Greece, but I feel they won't do it today. They are the better team in general and they were cautious in the weekend in their Seria A game, in order to keep fresh for this clash. The home advantage and the difference in class should be enough in this game.
Pick 43:
Event: Academica - Atletico Madrid
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.82 @ Interwetten
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: I expected Atletico to keep a clean sheet in the first leg, but they didn't manage to do so and I now believe they won't be able to do it in Portugal. Both teams have great attacking players and I feel they should be able to both score. As always, Interwetten are late and other bookies give much lower price on this market, which is another good indication. Not a big stake though, since Atletico are almost through and their motivation is somewhat questionable.
This is it for today, good luck everyone.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Good Tuesday and some more Champions League
Hello guys,
Yesterday was a pretty good day for me especially in the Champions League. All of my three bets were won with PSG trashing Dinamo Zagreb, a draw in Kiev and Anderlecht managing to keep a clean sheet against Zenit. That brought a solid profit and compensated the tiny loss from my English Championship bets, so overall another great day. Today I have prepared few more bets on the Champions league and I hope they will be winners too, here we go:
Pick 37
Event: Chelsea - Shakhtar Donetsk
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.33 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I though long and hard about this game, since it is a very crucial one. Chelsea need to win it for sure, since if they don't there is a very strong possibility to get dumped from the Champions League in the group stage. The only possible absentees are Ashley Cole and Lampard, while Mata and Torres should be back after missing Saturday's clash against Swansea. That makes me think the hosts will be a force upfront and needing a win badly, should be able to score some goals. On the other hand, the visitors are very dangerous as well and have scored at least a goal in all of their games in nearly an year. I think Chelsea will win it at the end, but I smell a lot of goals in this one and the odds for over 3 are looking great to me.
Pick 38
Event: Juventus - Nordsjaelland
Pick: Juventus - 2AH
Odds: 1.79 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The Italians are in a tough position in the group - they have only three points and they other two matches are with Chelsea at home and Shakhtar away. Considering the difference in class of both teams, which was very clear in the first game despite the draw, I think Juve will be pushing hard from the first minute and a trashing is quite possible here. The line offers some insurance in case they win with two goals, so I am willing to take it.
Pick 39
Event: Braga - Manchester United
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.50 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: United are on top of the group with 9 points and it looks they are gonna win it comfortably. Braga are pretty much in contention for the second place, so they will be fully motivated for this game. The main reason I am taking the draw is simple - if around the 60th minute mark the game is equal, both teams will try not to lose it, cause a point is enough for them. Small stakes though.
This is it for today, good luck everyone :)
Yesterday was a pretty good day for me especially in the Champions League. All of my three bets were won with PSG trashing Dinamo Zagreb, a draw in Kiev and Anderlecht managing to keep a clean sheet against Zenit. That brought a solid profit and compensated the tiny loss from my English Championship bets, so overall another great day. Today I have prepared few more bets on the Champions league and I hope they will be winners too, here we go:
Pick 37
Event: Chelsea - Shakhtar Donetsk
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.33 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I though long and hard about this game, since it is a very crucial one. Chelsea need to win it for sure, since if they don't there is a very strong possibility to get dumped from the Champions League in the group stage. The only possible absentees are Ashley Cole and Lampard, while Mata and Torres should be back after missing Saturday's clash against Swansea. That makes me think the hosts will be a force upfront and needing a win badly, should be able to score some goals. On the other hand, the visitors are very dangerous as well and have scored at least a goal in all of their games in nearly an year. I think Chelsea will win it at the end, but I smell a lot of goals in this one and the odds for over 3 are looking great to me.
| Mata is back after a minor injury |
Pick 38
Event: Juventus - Nordsjaelland
Pick: Juventus - 2AH
Odds: 1.79 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The Italians are in a tough position in the group - they have only three points and they other two matches are with Chelsea at home and Shakhtar away. Considering the difference in class of both teams, which was very clear in the first game despite the draw, I think Juve will be pushing hard from the first minute and a trashing is quite possible here. The line offers some insurance in case they win with two goals, so I am willing to take it.
Pick 39
Event: Braga - Manchester United
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.50 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: United are on top of the group with 9 points and it looks they are gonna win it comfortably. Braga are pretty much in contention for the second place, so they will be fully motivated for this game. The main reason I am taking the draw is simple - if around the 60th minute mark the game is equal, both teams will try not to lose it, cause a point is enough for them. Small stakes though.
This is it for today, good luck everyone :)
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Some more picks for Capital One Cup
Hi guys,
I was looking at the odds for the other Capital One Cup matches and I found some bets I think contain some value. Here are two quick picks for today:
Pick 20
Event: Chelsea - Manchester United
Pick: Chelsea 0 AH
Odds: 1.70 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the emotions in the two teams. After the terrible referee decisions on Sunday Chelsea were left very frustrated and angry. I think they will do their best to revenge and this will give them some extra motivation to win the game.
Pick 21
Event: Reading - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal
Odds: 1.91 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: I was wondering if I should take this bet, but the good Arsenal record in the League Cup and the fact they have won five out of five games against Reading made up my mind. The Gooners will probably have a balanced line up with seniors like Koscielny, Jenkinsons, Coquelin, Arshavin involved as well as some very promising youngsters like Martinez, Eisfeld and Gnabri. On the other hand Reading are really struggling in the Premier League and this should be their top priority.
I was looking at the odds for the other Capital One Cup matches and I found some bets I think contain some value. Here are two quick picks for today:
Pick 20
Event: Chelsea - Manchester United
Pick: Chelsea 0 AH
Odds: 1.70 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the emotions in the two teams. After the terrible referee decisions on Sunday Chelsea were left very frustrated and angry. I think they will do their best to revenge and this will give them some extra motivation to win the game.
| Terrible performance on Sunday by Clattenburg. |
Pick 21
Event: Reading - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal
Odds: 1.91 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: I was wondering if I should take this bet, but the good Arsenal record in the League Cup and the fact they have won five out of five games against Reading made up my mind. The Gooners will probably have a balanced line up with seniors like Koscielny, Jenkinsons, Coquelin, Arshavin involved as well as some very promising youngsters like Martinez, Eisfeld and Gnabri. On the other hand Reading are really struggling in the Premier League and this should be their top priority.
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