Hello again,
I was thinking about the game and I feel this is the perfect chance for Theo Walcott to score. He already should be fully fit, he will most probably start and surely there will be a lot space to exploit. Especially at the end of the game, when Napoli will most likely have to push. This is the reason I am adding another bet for the game:
Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Theo Walcott to score anytime
Odds: 4.33 @ William Hill
Stake:2/10
Good luck everyone
Showing posts with label champions league. Show all posts
Showing posts with label champions league. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Weekend recap and a Champions League pick
Hi guys,
As you probably noticed, I didn't put more picks for this weekend, cause I was somewhat insecure and didn't want to risk it with bets, that I am not sure there is value in. However, my only pick that Newcastle won't lose at Old Trafford was a success as the Magpies even managed to win. This means the bad start is now behind me. Now it is time for a bet in the Champions League:
Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal + 0AH
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The Gunner are in great shape and need just a point in order to win the group. Napoli on the other hand, will have to win by 3 goals to be certain of qualification and are not doing great recently with only 1 win in 5 games and a lot of goals conceded. This makes me think the home team will have to push hard from the start and will leave a lot of space in the back. The Gooners are very solid in defense and more than capable to keep to take advantage on the counter. This is the reason I am expecting a win for the visitors, but since they don't really need it and might settle for a draw, I am going for the safer DNB bet. As for the team news - both teams will use their best and Arsene Wenger specifically said he won't rest players.
Good luck :)
As you probably noticed, I didn't put more picks for this weekend, cause I was somewhat insecure and didn't want to risk it with bets, that I am not sure there is value in. However, my only pick that Newcastle won't lose at Old Trafford was a success as the Magpies even managed to win. This means the bad start is now behind me. Now it is time for a bet in the Champions League:
Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal + 0AH
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The Gunner are in great shape and need just a point in order to win the group. Napoli on the other hand, will have to win by 3 goals to be certain of qualification and are not doing great recently with only 1 win in 5 games and a lot of goals conceded. This makes me think the home team will have to push hard from the start and will leave a lot of space in the back. The Gooners are very solid in defense and more than capable to keep to take advantage on the counter. This is the reason I am expecting a win for the visitors, but since they don't really need it and might settle for a draw, I am going for the safer DNB bet. As for the team news - both teams will use their best and Arsene Wenger specifically said he won't rest players.
Good luck :)
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Wednesday Champions League picks
Hi guys,
I was trying to find another pick for Tuesday and had some ideas yesterday, but at the end I decided I'll skip them and stick with my only pick for Olympiacos. Despite a tough start the Greeks managed to win against Arsenal which meant my bet on them +0.25AH was fully won. Today there are more Champions League games and I think there are some value bets out there:
Pick 76
Event: Manchester United - Cluj
Pick: Under 1.25 goals in the first half
Odds: 1.78 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Well, Man Utd already won this group and if you add to this the derby against Man City on Sunday there is no doubt they will field a very weakened side with a lot of youngsters and second string players. However, Alex Ferguson insisted that his main concern is the defense and he will demand a better defending from his side in this game. Add to the fact the hosts will miss their most dangerous players and it looks like the under is quite possible, but since Cluj might be desperate towards the ends of this match, I think the line of 1.25 for the first half is the safest option.
Pick 77
Event: Celtik - Spartak Moscow
Pick: Spartak Moscow +1 AH
Odds: 1.69 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Everyone is expecting Celtic to win this game, since the Russians are playing for nothing and the hosts will surely qualify, if they win it, since Benfica is visiting Barcelona. However, there are some details that make me wanna bet on the Russians. One of them is that Celtic were never in a spot when they have to attack, their best performances came when they were sitting back and waiting on a counter. Also, if Barcelona is winning against Benfica a draw will be enough for the hosts to qualify. This is why I think the Russians can take something from this game, but still I am taking a safe option which returns my money if they lose by a single goal.
These are my bets for today, I was thinking about the draw in Ukraine, where Skakhtar and Juve can dump Chelsea, but my gut feeling is that the hosts don't really need the draw, which makes the game more unpredictable than it seems. I think I might try some live betting there.
When I mentioned live betting - there is currently a pole in the top right corner, some of you even already voted. I am thinking about having live updates during EPL match days with some possible live bets. If you like the idea vote for it, if you don't - vote against it, as simple as that.
Good luck everyone :)
I was trying to find another pick for Tuesday and had some ideas yesterday, but at the end I decided I'll skip them and stick with my only pick for Olympiacos. Despite a tough start the Greeks managed to win against Arsenal which meant my bet on them +0.25AH was fully won. Today there are more Champions League games and I think there are some value bets out there:
Pick 76
Event: Manchester United - Cluj
Pick: Under 1.25 goals in the first half
Odds: 1.78 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Well, Man Utd already won this group and if you add to this the derby against Man City on Sunday there is no doubt they will field a very weakened side with a lot of youngsters and second string players. However, Alex Ferguson insisted that his main concern is the defense and he will demand a better defending from his side in this game. Add to the fact the hosts will miss their most dangerous players and it looks like the under is quite possible, but since Cluj might be desperate towards the ends of this match, I think the line of 1.25 for the first half is the safest option.
Pick 77
Event: Celtik - Spartak Moscow
Pick: Spartak Moscow +1 AH
Odds: 1.69 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Everyone is expecting Celtic to win this game, since the Russians are playing for nothing and the hosts will surely qualify, if they win it, since Benfica is visiting Barcelona. However, there are some details that make me wanna bet on the Russians. One of them is that Celtic were never in a spot when they have to attack, their best performances came when they were sitting back and waiting on a counter. Also, if Barcelona is winning against Benfica a draw will be enough for the hosts to qualify. This is why I think the Russians can take something from this game, but still I am taking a safe option which returns my money if they lose by a single goal.
These are my bets for today, I was thinking about the draw in Ukraine, where Skakhtar and Juve can dump Chelsea, but my gut feeling is that the hosts don't really need the draw, which makes the game more unpredictable than it seems. I think I might try some live betting there.
When I mentioned live betting - there is currently a pole in the top right corner, some of you even already voted. I am thinking about having live updates during EPL match days with some possible live bets. If you like the idea vote for it, if you don't - vote against it, as simple as that.
Good luck everyone :)
Monday, December 3, 2012
Champions league picks and final Premier league prediction
Hi guys,
It wasn't the best weekend, cause Man City didn't do enough to win against Everton despite some late chances, but Southampton lost with just a single goal against Liverpool, so this meant a half win there returned some cash. As you have probably have seen in my last post, I was a little bit ahead from live betting too, so basically it was a break even weekend. It is now time to take a look at the last game in the Premier League and also the last group matches in the Champions League:
Pick 74
Event: Newcastle - Wigan Athletic
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.53 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Newcastle are having a number of problems lately, mostly because of the huge amount of injuries in a very bad time of the season. They have lost four games in a row and they are now just 2 points above the relegation zone, so they desperately need points. However, they still will miss a number of players and Wigan are in a rather decent shape recently. This makes me think the draw here is very possible options. The hosts will really want to win this game and I expect them to be fully motivated, but with some key defenders and midfielders out, Wigan should be able to take a point here. Small stakes, since draws are very risky as always.
Pick 75
Event: Olympiacos - Arsenal
Pick: Olympiacos +0.25AH
Odds: 1.87 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I don't like betting against my favorite team, but I just can't miss this one. Arsenal is in a terrible shape lately and most importantly, many of the players look jaded. In his post match interview at the weekend Wenger hinted he will probably rest some of his boys. This would be the logical choice considering the fact Arsenal is already qualified and their finishing position wouldn't make such a big difference for the knockouts when you look at the other groups.
This is it for now, but I believe there are some other possible bets in the CL and I will write another post about it tomorrow, good luck everyone :)
It wasn't the best weekend, cause Man City didn't do enough to win against Everton despite some late chances, but Southampton lost with just a single goal against Liverpool, so this meant a half win there returned some cash. As you have probably have seen in my last post, I was a little bit ahead from live betting too, so basically it was a break even weekend. It is now time to take a look at the last game in the Premier League and also the last group matches in the Champions League:
Pick 74
Event: Newcastle - Wigan Athletic
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.53 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Newcastle are having a number of problems lately, mostly because of the huge amount of injuries in a very bad time of the season. They have lost four games in a row and they are now just 2 points above the relegation zone, so they desperately need points. However, they still will miss a number of players and Wigan are in a rather decent shape recently. This makes me think the draw here is very possible options. The hosts will really want to win this game and I expect them to be fully motivated, but with some key defenders and midfielders out, Wigan should be able to take a point here. Small stakes, since draws are very risky as always.
Pick 75
Event: Olympiacos - Arsenal
Pick: Olympiacos +0.25AH
Odds: 1.87 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I don't like betting against my favorite team, but I just can't miss this one. Arsenal is in a terrible shape lately and most importantly, many of the players look jaded. In his post match interview at the weekend Wenger hinted he will probably rest some of his boys. This would be the logical choice considering the fact Arsenal is already qualified and their finishing position wouldn't make such a big difference for the knockouts when you look at the other groups.
This is it for now, but I believe there are some other possible bets in the CL and I will write another post about it tomorrow, good luck everyone :)
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Decent Tuesday and more Champions League
Hello guys,
Yesterday was a rather good day with two bets won and one lost. The main bet of the evening was on Shakhtar -1.25 and despite some early troubles, the Ukrainians won comfortably at the end for a good profit. Galata also did the job and beat Man United, but Benfica and Celtic ruined the perfect day. The hosts had a number of chances throughout the game, but only managed to win 2:1, however I am happy with my bet and I feel there was value, but luck wasn't on our side this time.
Today the Champions league continues and it is time for some more picks:
Pick 60
Event: Zenit - Malaga
Pick: Malaga +0.5 AH
Odds: 2.21 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Malaga have already qualified for the next stage of the tournament, but Pellegrini insists he won't take this game lightly, especially considering the fact a point here will be enough to secure the first place in the group. The Spanish side has some absentees for this game, but still come with a very decent squad. The Russians are also expected to field a strong squad, but there are some doubtful players with a knocks like Hulk, Bystrov and others. To be honest, I feel Malaga is obviously the better team here despite the circumstances and I feel they can get something from this game, the stats are also on their side - they lost just one away game in UEFA competitions, so I don't think they will lose again here.
Pick 61
Event: Arsenal - Montpellier
Pick: Arsenal -1.25 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The visitors are already out of the competition, while the other three teams in the group will be fighting for their place in the knockout stages. Arsenal will surely need a win here and considering how important the tournament for Arsene Wenger is, I expect full commitment from the gunners. They are rather strong at home and their confidence should be once again high after demolishing local rival Tottenham last weekend. In terms of team news there are both good and bad news for the London side - Walcott is out of this match with a shoulder injury, but left back Gibbs is back, as well as Gervinho. I really think the return of Gibbs will make a huge impact on this game, because since his injury the left flank isn't working well and Podolski is struggling. As for the visitors their main goal will be to keep their pride and their slim chances to play in Europa League. They will surely miss Belhanda because of suspension and got some players who are doubtful for the game. To be honest, I can't see anything but an Arsenal win here and I think it will be with more than a goal.
I have some thoughts about the other games too, but I can't seem to find a good bet for now, once again, I will probably go for some live bets. Good luck everyone :)
Yesterday was a rather good day with two bets won and one lost. The main bet of the evening was on Shakhtar -1.25 and despite some early troubles, the Ukrainians won comfortably at the end for a good profit. Galata also did the job and beat Man United, but Benfica and Celtic ruined the perfect day. The hosts had a number of chances throughout the game, but only managed to win 2:1, however I am happy with my bet and I feel there was value, but luck wasn't on our side this time.
Today the Champions league continues and it is time for some more picks:
Pick 60
Event: Zenit - Malaga
Pick: Malaga +0.5 AH
Odds: 2.21 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Malaga have already qualified for the next stage of the tournament, but Pellegrini insists he won't take this game lightly, especially considering the fact a point here will be enough to secure the first place in the group. The Spanish side has some absentees for this game, but still come with a very decent squad. The Russians are also expected to field a strong squad, but there are some doubtful players with a knocks like Hulk, Bystrov and others. To be honest, I feel Malaga is obviously the better team here despite the circumstances and I feel they can get something from this game, the stats are also on their side - they lost just one away game in UEFA competitions, so I don't think they will lose again here.
Pick 61
Event: Arsenal - Montpellier
Pick: Arsenal -1.25 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The visitors are already out of the competition, while the other three teams in the group will be fighting for their place in the knockout stages. Arsenal will surely need a win here and considering how important the tournament for Arsene Wenger is, I expect full commitment from the gunners. They are rather strong at home and their confidence should be once again high after demolishing local rival Tottenham last weekend. In terms of team news there are both good and bad news for the London side - Walcott is out of this match with a shoulder injury, but left back Gibbs is back, as well as Gervinho. I really think the return of Gibbs will make a huge impact on this game, because since his injury the left flank isn't working well and Podolski is struggling. As for the visitors their main goal will be to keep their pride and their slim chances to play in Europa League. They will surely miss Belhanda because of suspension and got some players who are doubtful for the game. To be honest, I can't see anything but an Arsenal win here and I think it will be with more than a goal.
I have some thoughts about the other games too, but I can't seem to find a good bet for now, once again, I will probably go for some live bets. Good luck everyone :)
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Benfica - Celtic pick
Hello again guys,
I am looking at the games and to be honest, I have some reservations for most of them, so I will probably watch them and try to find some good value in live betting, but still I think there is another good option for today:
Pick 59
Event: Benfica - Celtic
Pick: Benfica -1.5 AH
Odds: 2.43 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Benfica will be desperate here as anything but a win means game over for the Portugal side. They are in a very good run of five wins and they are solid especially at home. They don't have many absent players and with the home crowd behind their backs, they will be pushing from the first minute of the game. Celtic on the other hand are the huge surprise in the group and after the win against Barca they are the favorites to qualify and they even can do it tonight. I expect them to sit tight and defend in this match, but I feel the Portuguese side will be able to break them more than once.
This is it with my prematch games for the day, good luck everyone.
I am looking at the games and to be honest, I have some reservations for most of them, so I will probably watch them and try to find some good value in live betting, but still I think there is another good option for today:
Pick 59
Event: Benfica - Celtic
Pick: Benfica -1.5 AH
Odds: 2.43 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Benfica will be desperate here as anything but a win means game over for the Portugal side. They are in a very good run of five wins and they are solid especially at home. They don't have many absent players and with the home crowd behind their backs, they will be pushing from the first minute of the game. Celtic on the other hand are the huge surprise in the group and after the win against Barca they are the favorites to qualify and they even can do it tonight. I expect them to sit tight and defend in this match, but I feel the Portuguese side will be able to break them more than once.
This is it with my prematch games for the day, good luck everyone.
Champions league picks
Hi guys,
Yesterday was a bad day, since West Ham didn't manage to beat Stoke and my bet on the game was lost. The Hammers went a goal down and despite an early equalizer in the start of the second half and some pressure afterwards, they didn't manage to create enough clear cut chances.
Today we have the Champions league and I already have a bet there - Shakhtar -1.25 AH, but I think there is another good pick for today, so here we go:
Pick 58
Event: Galatasaray - Manchester United
Pick: Galata -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.05 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on motivation and team news - United already secured their first place in the group and they arrive in Turkey without many of their best players like van Persie, Rooney, Ferdinand, Evra, Valencia and others. On the other hand the hosts really need this win, they have almost their full squad and they actually didn't put too much effort on the weekend which lead to a home loss in the local competition. This makes me think Galata can take the very much needed win here against a weakened Man United side.
This is it for now, but stay tuned, since I am researching all of today's matches and I will probably post another pick later today.
Yesterday was a bad day, since West Ham didn't manage to beat Stoke and my bet on the game was lost. The Hammers went a goal down and despite an early equalizer in the start of the second half and some pressure afterwards, they didn't manage to create enough clear cut chances.
Today we have the Champions league and I already have a bet there - Shakhtar -1.25 AH, but I think there is another good pick for today, so here we go:
Pick 58
Event: Galatasaray - Manchester United
Pick: Galata -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.05 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on motivation and team news - United already secured their first place in the group and they arrive in Turkey without many of their best players like van Persie, Rooney, Ferdinand, Evra, Valencia and others. On the other hand the hosts really need this win, they have almost their full squad and they actually didn't put too much effort on the weekend which lead to a home loss in the local competition. This makes me think Galata can take the very much needed win here against a weakened Man United side.
This is it for now, but stay tuned, since I am researching all of today's matches and I will probably post another pick later today.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Bad weekend and an early Champions league pick
Hi guys,
After the great start of the blog it was inevitable to have a bad period at some point. Well, it happened this weekend, when most of my bets on the Premier League were lost. Yesterday Newcastle didn't manage to create enough chances despite their efforts and lost to West Ham at home and Chelsea missed few chances to close the game against Liverpool and were punished. Bad weekend, no doubt about it, but life goes on, so it is time to take advantage of some early odds which should fall until the games come, so I am willing to take them now:
Pick 50
Event: Nordsjaelland - Shakhtar
Pick: Shakhtar -1.25 AH
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This is the key game for the Ukrainian side - a win here and they are through to the knockout stages. Skahtar have shown some great stuff against both Chelsea and Juventus, while the Danish side is getting trashed almost every game. I don't see something different from a win for the visitors here and considering they are a force upfront, I think it is going to be very convincing. Full stake here before the odds drop.
This is it for today, I am not sure I will post much picks for the international friendlies, since it is hard to predict them. However, I will probably have a bet or two with small stakes. Good luck everyone :)
After the great start of the blog it was inevitable to have a bad period at some point. Well, it happened this weekend, when most of my bets on the Premier League were lost. Yesterday Newcastle didn't manage to create enough chances despite their efforts and lost to West Ham at home and Chelsea missed few chances to close the game against Liverpool and were punished. Bad weekend, no doubt about it, but life goes on, so it is time to take advantage of some early odds which should fall until the games come, so I am willing to take them now:
Pick 50
Event: Nordsjaelland - Shakhtar
Pick: Shakhtar -1.25 AH
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This is the key game for the Ukrainian side - a win here and they are through to the knockout stages. Skahtar have shown some great stuff against both Chelsea and Juventus, while the Danish side is getting trashed almost every game. I don't see something different from a win for the visitors here and considering they are a force upfront, I think it is going to be very convincing. Full stake here before the odds drop.
This is it for today, I am not sure I will post much picks for the international friendlies, since it is hard to predict them. However, I will probably have a bet or two with small stakes. Good luck everyone :)
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Good Tuesday and some more Champions League
Hello guys,
Yesterday was a pretty good day for me especially in the Champions League. All of my three bets were won with PSG trashing Dinamo Zagreb, a draw in Kiev and Anderlecht managing to keep a clean sheet against Zenit. That brought a solid profit and compensated the tiny loss from my English Championship bets, so overall another great day. Today I have prepared few more bets on the Champions league and I hope they will be winners too, here we go:
Pick 37
Event: Chelsea - Shakhtar Donetsk
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.33 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I though long and hard about this game, since it is a very crucial one. Chelsea need to win it for sure, since if they don't there is a very strong possibility to get dumped from the Champions League in the group stage. The only possible absentees are Ashley Cole and Lampard, while Mata and Torres should be back after missing Saturday's clash against Swansea. That makes me think the hosts will be a force upfront and needing a win badly, should be able to score some goals. On the other hand, the visitors are very dangerous as well and have scored at least a goal in all of their games in nearly an year. I think Chelsea will win it at the end, but I smell a lot of goals in this one and the odds for over 3 are looking great to me.
Pick 38
Event: Juventus - Nordsjaelland
Pick: Juventus - 2AH
Odds: 1.79 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The Italians are in a tough position in the group - they have only three points and they other two matches are with Chelsea at home and Shakhtar away. Considering the difference in class of both teams, which was very clear in the first game despite the draw, I think Juve will be pushing hard from the first minute and a trashing is quite possible here. The line offers some insurance in case they win with two goals, so I am willing to take it.
Pick 39
Event: Braga - Manchester United
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.50 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: United are on top of the group with 9 points and it looks they are gonna win it comfortably. Braga are pretty much in contention for the second place, so they will be fully motivated for this game. The main reason I am taking the draw is simple - if around the 60th minute mark the game is equal, both teams will try not to lose it, cause a point is enough for them. Small stakes though.
This is it for today, good luck everyone :)
Yesterday was a pretty good day for me especially in the Champions League. All of my three bets were won with PSG trashing Dinamo Zagreb, a draw in Kiev and Anderlecht managing to keep a clean sheet against Zenit. That brought a solid profit and compensated the tiny loss from my English Championship bets, so overall another great day. Today I have prepared few more bets on the Champions league and I hope they will be winners too, here we go:
Pick 37
Event: Chelsea - Shakhtar Donetsk
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.33 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: I though long and hard about this game, since it is a very crucial one. Chelsea need to win it for sure, since if they don't there is a very strong possibility to get dumped from the Champions League in the group stage. The only possible absentees are Ashley Cole and Lampard, while Mata and Torres should be back after missing Saturday's clash against Swansea. That makes me think the hosts will be a force upfront and needing a win badly, should be able to score some goals. On the other hand, the visitors are very dangerous as well and have scored at least a goal in all of their games in nearly an year. I think Chelsea will win it at the end, but I smell a lot of goals in this one and the odds for over 3 are looking great to me.
| Mata is back after a minor injury |
Pick 38
Event: Juventus - Nordsjaelland
Pick: Juventus - 2AH
Odds: 1.79 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The Italians are in a tough position in the group - they have only three points and they other two matches are with Chelsea at home and Shakhtar away. Considering the difference in class of both teams, which was very clear in the first game despite the draw, I think Juve will be pushing hard from the first minute and a trashing is quite possible here. The line offers some insurance in case they win with two goals, so I am willing to take it.
Pick 39
Event: Braga - Manchester United
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.50 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: United are on top of the group with 9 points and it looks they are gonna win it comfortably. Braga are pretty much in contention for the second place, so they will be fully motivated for this game. The main reason I am taking the draw is simple - if around the 60th minute mark the game is equal, both teams will try not to lose it, cause a point is enough for them. Small stakes though.
This is it for today, good luck everyone :)
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Another win and Champions league picks
Hi guys,
The good streak continued yesterday when West Brom managed to win against the Saints at home, so that brought me a decent profit. With this pick I managed to achieve 10/12 picks won in the Premier League from the past 10 days and I am pretty satisfied with the result. What really surprised me was the fact the odds for West Brom reached 1.93 at some point which was insane, given the performance of the two teams since the start of the season, sometimes I really don't understand the bookies. However, the match went as expected with Southampton inefficient upfront and terrible at the back. So, today I am waiting for two picks in the Championship and in the mean time I think I found some good bets for the Champions league. Here we go:
Pick 34
Event: Anderlecht - Zenit
Pick: Both teams to score - no
Odds: 2.15 @ BetVictor
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I can't understand the odds here, given the fact the hosts still haven't scored a goal in this competition, in fact they've only managed 12 shots on goal for now. On the other hand, Zenit didn't look too dangerous in the fixture in Saint Petersburg either and now they are missing Hulk for this match. This makes me think there is a strong possibility that at least one of the teams doesn't manage to score a goal and I will take the generous odds BetVictor is giving.
Pick 35
Event: Dinamo Kiev - Porto
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.43 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Porto are doing great since the start of the competition and have the maximum 9 point from their first three games. This makes them almost certain to go through and despite that I doubt they will underestimate this game. They want to win the group in order to have a softer opponent in the knockout stages, but it is never easy to play in Ukraine, especially at this time of the year. This makes me think the visitors won't be unhappy with a draw. The odds seem nice and that is why I will give it a shot with small stakes.
Pick 36
Event: PSG - Dinamo Zagreb
Pick: PSG -2AH
Odds: 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The main reasons for the this pick are two - the obvious difference in class of both teams and most importantly the motivation of the hosts. After losing at home at the weekend they will want to bounce back as soon as possible and wash out the bad memories of their fans. Also, Ibrahimovic was sent off and I think his frustration may result in a great game against the Croatian side. If you add the fact the visitors are not likely to score goals here, I believe a trashing is quite possible and the -2AH line is somewhat safe option, so I am going for it.
This is it for today, I might put some more bets on the games tomorrow, good luck everyone :)
The good streak continued yesterday when West Brom managed to win against the Saints at home, so that brought me a decent profit. With this pick I managed to achieve 10/12 picks won in the Premier League from the past 10 days and I am pretty satisfied with the result. What really surprised me was the fact the odds for West Brom reached 1.93 at some point which was insane, given the performance of the two teams since the start of the season, sometimes I really don't understand the bookies. However, the match went as expected with Southampton inefficient upfront and terrible at the back. So, today I am waiting for two picks in the Championship and in the mean time I think I found some good bets for the Champions league. Here we go:
Pick 34
Event: Anderlecht - Zenit
Pick: Both teams to score - no
Odds: 2.15 @ BetVictor
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I can't understand the odds here, given the fact the hosts still haven't scored a goal in this competition, in fact they've only managed 12 shots on goal for now. On the other hand, Zenit didn't look too dangerous in the fixture in Saint Petersburg either and now they are missing Hulk for this match. This makes me think there is a strong possibility that at least one of the teams doesn't manage to score a goal and I will take the generous odds BetVictor is giving.
| Hulk is out for tonight's game. |
Pick 35
Event: Dinamo Kiev - Porto
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.43 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Porto are doing great since the start of the competition and have the maximum 9 point from their first three games. This makes them almost certain to go through and despite that I doubt they will underestimate this game. They want to win the group in order to have a softer opponent in the knockout stages, but it is never easy to play in Ukraine, especially at this time of the year. This makes me think the visitors won't be unhappy with a draw. The odds seem nice and that is why I will give it a shot with small stakes.
Pick 36
Event: PSG - Dinamo Zagreb
Pick: PSG -2AH
Odds: 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The main reasons for the this pick are two - the obvious difference in class of both teams and most importantly the motivation of the hosts. After losing at home at the weekend they will want to bounce back as soon as possible and wash out the bad memories of their fans. Also, Ibrahimovic was sent off and I think his frustration may result in a great game against the Croatian side. If you add the fact the visitors are not likely to score goals here, I believe a trashing is quite possible and the -2AH line is somewhat safe option, so I am going for it.
| After showing his bad side, I think Zlatan will show his good one tonight. |
This is it for today, I might put some more bets on the games tomorrow, good luck everyone :)
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Time for Europa League
Hi guys,
The first pick in this blog was successful and I hope this is a good sign :) Spartak and Benfica did the job in the first half and the bet on over 2.5 is a win. Today we will see what happens with the other CL picks, but now it is time for some Europa League. After taking a deep look at some stats and info about the games, here is what I find attractive as odds:
Pick 5
Event: Genk - Sporting Lisboa
Pick: Genk +0 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the shape of the two teams in both domestic and European competitions. Genk are unbeaten in a number of games and are doing very well especially at home. Sporting on the other hand got dumped from the Portuguese cup, got beaten by Porto and were also demolished by Videoton in the last round of Europa League. Obviously, they are not in their best shape and this is why I think the home side is the favorite here. I am taking the AH bet, since it is the safer option and the bet will be void in a case of a draw.
Pick 6
Event: Helsingborg - Hannover
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams seem more than capable of scoring in both their domestic leagues and in Europe. The visitors managed to score twice in both of their first two games and also conceded at least a goal in five of their last six games. Helsingborg on the other hand manage to score at least a goal in most of their home games, so I expect them do it again here. This makes me think there will be some goals in this game and the odds in Pini look good value to me.
Pick 7
Event: Maribor - Tottenham
Pick: Maribor
Odds: 5.41 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Well, this pick may seem strange to many, but I feel that the hosts can produce a surprise here. They are playing very well at home in European competitions and as most Eastern European teams they are highly motivated to perform well in this tournament. This is not the case with the English club, and although manager Villas Boas says it is important to him and also picks strong sides, the players attitude is different and the biggest proof is the stupid draw against a very weak Panathinaikos team. This is why I find the odds for a home win pretty good and I will give it a shot with a small stake.
While I was looking at the odds for Europa League I couldn't help to see the odds for Arsenal win today too and this is why I am adding another pick for CL here:
Pick 8
Event: Arsenal - Schalke
Pick: Arsenal to win
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: It is obvious that Schalke are in good shape, while Arsenal are having some issues currently, but still 2.15 seems too high. The Gunners are the better team in general, they play very well at home and they haven't lost there for ages (in CL of course) and they are much more experienced in the competition. I just don't feel the price is right here and that is why I am taking the bet.
This is it, good luck to everyone and don't hesitate to share your opinion :)
The first pick in this blog was successful and I hope this is a good sign :) Spartak and Benfica did the job in the first half and the bet on over 2.5 is a win. Today we will see what happens with the other CL picks, but now it is time for some Europa League. After taking a deep look at some stats and info about the games, here is what I find attractive as odds:
Pick 5
Event: Genk - Sporting Lisboa
Pick: Genk +0 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the shape of the two teams in both domestic and European competitions. Genk are unbeaten in a number of games and are doing very well especially at home. Sporting on the other hand got dumped from the Portuguese cup, got beaten by Porto and were also demolished by Videoton in the last round of Europa League. Obviously, they are not in their best shape and this is why I think the home side is the favorite here. I am taking the AH bet, since it is the safer option and the bet will be void in a case of a draw.
Pick 6
Event: Helsingborg - Hannover
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams seem more than capable of scoring in both their domestic leagues and in Europe. The visitors managed to score twice in both of their first two games and also conceded at least a goal in five of their last six games. Helsingborg on the other hand manage to score at least a goal in most of their home games, so I expect them do it again here. This makes me think there will be some goals in this game and the odds in Pini look good value to me.
Pick 7
Event: Maribor - Tottenham
Pick: Maribor
Odds: 5.41 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Well, this pick may seem strange to many, but I feel that the hosts can produce a surprise here. They are playing very well at home in European competitions and as most Eastern European teams they are highly motivated to perform well in this tournament. This is not the case with the English club, and although manager Villas Boas says it is important to him and also picks strong sides, the players attitude is different and the biggest proof is the stupid draw against a very weak Panathinaikos team. This is why I find the odds for a home win pretty good and I will give it a shot with a small stake.
 |
| Villas Boas is highly motivated, but what about his players? |
While I was looking at the odds for Europa League I couldn't help to see the odds for Arsenal win today too and this is why I am adding another pick for CL here:
Pick 8
Event: Arsenal - Schalke
Pick: Arsenal to win
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: It is obvious that Schalke are in good shape, while Arsenal are having some issues currently, but still 2.15 seems too high. The Gunners are the better team in general, they play very well at home and they haven't lost there for ages (in CL of course) and they are much more experienced in the competition. I just don't feel the price is right here and that is why I am taking the bet.
This is it, good luck to everyone and don't hesitate to share your opinion :)
Monday, October 22, 2012
Let's Rock'N Roll!
Hello dear readers,
I assume I am talking to myself since this is my first post in the blog and no one will be reading it, but you gotta start somehow:) The idea of this blog is to post my sports betting picks, and I hope this will help me be more disciplined, to keep a good tracking record of my picks and eventually find some other tipsters with whom I could share ideas and picks.
I won't be revealing much information about myself, except for a fact I am proud Arsenal supporter :) I will bet mostly on football and rarely on other sports like Formula 1, Tennis, Volleyball and other stuff. I will use variable stakes and although I don't have a mathematical system behind my bets, I won't try to predict the outcome of games, I will try to evaluate them and find markets, that contain value, since I believe this is the only way to make money:) That and having some inside info about fixed games, but since I don't have such, I will have to do it the hard way :)
I think this short introduction is enough and it is time to start with the serious part - there is Champions League this week and I can see some great picks available:
Pick 1
Event: Zenit - Anderlecht
Pick: Zenit (-1 EH)
Odds: 2.50 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I can't resist to get max stakes here, since the hosts really need this win in order to keep some chances of going through to the knockout stage. Zenit is the much better team in paper and despite the bad start, they are showing signs of improvement and should be able to win this game comfortably. It is also good to mention that the two teams met in the Europa League group stage last year and the Russians won both games with 3:1.
Pick 2
Event: Dinamo Zagreb - PSG
Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 2.63 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Everybody is expecting PSG to win here and you ca easily see why - they are the better team and they desperately need the points. However, the odds for win are not too high and I am not sure there is value in them. That is why I prefer the option PSG to win to nil - Dinamo have no goals yet, they seem pretty toothless and the defense of the French team is solid. Big stakes, since I think the value is good.
Pick 3
Event: Ajax - Manchester City
Pick: Manchester City to win
Odds: 1.80 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Man City managed to somehow get a point from the game against Dortmund and this was really vital, since it keeps their chances to go to the knockout stages. However, they have to take 6 points from the two games with Ajax in order to be in a good position. They are the much better team and the morale is great after the had fought victory against West Brom at the weekend. That is why I think odds of 1.8 are good enough to go for it.
Pick 4
Event: Spartak Moscow - Benfica
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams are with their back against the wall and need to win this, especially the Russians. They played decent games against Celtic and Barca, but got beaten in both of them with late goals. It seems they are capable of scoring, but also concede easily and Benfica has the fire power to capitalize. I expect a tough and open game with many goals, since the losing side is out and a draw is no good for both teams.
This is it for today, I will probably post my Europa League pick tomorrow and will try to find some more value in the CL :)
Good luck!
I assume I am talking to myself since this is my first post in the blog and no one will be reading it, but you gotta start somehow:) The idea of this blog is to post my sports betting picks, and I hope this will help me be more disciplined, to keep a good tracking record of my picks and eventually find some other tipsters with whom I could share ideas and picks.
I won't be revealing much information about myself, except for a fact I am proud Arsenal supporter :) I will bet mostly on football and rarely on other sports like Formula 1, Tennis, Volleyball and other stuff. I will use variable stakes and although I don't have a mathematical system behind my bets, I won't try to predict the outcome of games, I will try to evaluate them and find markets, that contain value, since I believe this is the only way to make money:) That and having some inside info about fixed games, but since I don't have such, I will have to do it the hard way :)
I think this short introduction is enough and it is time to start with the serious part - there is Champions League this week and I can see some great picks available:
Pick 1
Event: Zenit - Anderlecht
Pick: Zenit (-1 EH)
Odds: 2.50 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I can't resist to get max stakes here, since the hosts really need this win in order to keep some chances of going through to the knockout stage. Zenit is the much better team in paper and despite the bad start, they are showing signs of improvement and should be able to win this game comfortably. It is also good to mention that the two teams met in the Europa League group stage last year and the Russians won both games with 3:1.
| I hope Hulk is in good shape :) |
Pick 2
Event: Dinamo Zagreb - PSG
Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 2.63 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Everybody is expecting PSG to win here and you ca easily see why - they are the better team and they desperately need the points. However, the odds for win are not too high and I am not sure there is value in them. That is why I prefer the option PSG to win to nil - Dinamo have no goals yet, they seem pretty toothless and the defense of the French team is solid. Big stakes, since I think the value is good.
Pick 3
Event: Ajax - Manchester City
Pick: Manchester City to win
Odds: 1.80 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Man City managed to somehow get a point from the game against Dortmund and this was really vital, since it keeps their chances to go to the knockout stages. However, they have to take 6 points from the two games with Ajax in order to be in a good position. They are the much better team and the morale is great after the had fought victory against West Brom at the weekend. That is why I think odds of 1.8 are good enough to go for it.
 |
| Joe Hart is the main reason City got a point in their last CL game. |
Pick 4
Event: Spartak Moscow - Benfica
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams are with their back against the wall and need to win this, especially the Russians. They played decent games against Celtic and Barca, but got beaten in both of them with late goals. It seems they are capable of scoring, but also concede easily and Benfica has the fire power to capitalize. I expect a tough and open game with many goals, since the losing side is out and a draw is no good for both teams.
This is it for today, I will probably post my Europa League pick tomorrow and will try to find some more value in the CL :)
Good luck!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)