I assume I am talking to myself since this is my first post in the blog and no one will be reading it, but you gotta start somehow:) The idea of this blog is to post my sports betting picks, and I hope this will help me be more disciplined, to keep a good tracking record of my picks and eventually find some other tipsters with whom I could share ideas and picks.
I won't be revealing much information about myself, except for a fact I am proud Arsenal supporter :) I will bet mostly on football and rarely on other sports like Formula 1, Tennis, Volleyball and other stuff. I will use variable stakes and although I don't have a mathematical system behind my bets, I won't try to predict the outcome of games, I will try to evaluate them and find markets, that contain value, since I believe this is the only way to make money:) That and having some inside info about fixed games, but since I don't have such, I will have to do it the hard way :)
I think this short introduction is enough and it is time to start with the serious part - there is Champions League this week and I can see some great picks available:
Pick 1
Event: Zenit - Anderlecht
Pick: Zenit (-1 EH)
Odds: 2.50 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I can't resist to get max stakes here, since the hosts really need this win in order to keep some chances of going through to the knockout stage. Zenit is the much better team in paper and despite the bad start, they are showing signs of improvement and should be able to win this game comfortably. It is also good to mention that the two teams met in the Europa League group stage last year and the Russians won both games with 3:1.
| I hope Hulk is in good shape :) |
Pick 2
Event: Dinamo Zagreb - PSG
Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 2.63 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Everybody is expecting PSG to win here and you ca easily see why - they are the better team and they desperately need the points. However, the odds for win are not too high and I am not sure there is value in them. That is why I prefer the option PSG to win to nil - Dinamo have no goals yet, they seem pretty toothless and the defense of the French team is solid. Big stakes, since I think the value is good.
Pick 3
Event: Ajax - Manchester City
Pick: Manchester City to win
Odds: 1.80 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Man City managed to somehow get a point from the game against Dortmund and this was really vital, since it keeps their chances to go to the knockout stages. However, they have to take 6 points from the two games with Ajax in order to be in a good position. They are the much better team and the morale is great after the had fought victory against West Brom at the weekend. That is why I think odds of 1.8 are good enough to go for it.
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| Joe Hart is the main reason City got a point in their last CL game. |
Pick 4
Event: Spartak Moscow - Benfica
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams are with their back against the wall and need to win this, especially the Russians. They played decent games against Celtic and Barca, but got beaten in both of them with late goals. It seems they are capable of scoring, but also concede easily and Benfica has the fire power to capitalize. I expect a tough and open game with many goals, since the losing side is out and a draw is no good for both teams.
This is it for today, I will probably post my Europa League pick tomorrow and will try to find some more value in the CL :)
Good luck!
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