Decent Tuesday and more Champions League

Hello guys,
Yesterday was a rather good day with two bets won and one lost. The main bet of the evening was on Shakhtar -1.25 and despite some early troubles, the Ukrainians won comfortably at the end for a good profit. Galata also did the job and beat Man United, but Benfica and Celtic ruined the perfect day. The hosts had a number of chances throughout the game, but only managed to win 2:1, however I am happy with my bet and I feel there was value, but luck wasn't on our side this time.
Today the Champions league continues and it is time for some more picks:


Pick 60
Event: Zenit - Malaga
Pick: Malaga +0.5 AH
Odds: 2.21 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Malaga have already qualified for the next stage of the tournament, but Pellegrini insists he won't take this game lightly, especially considering the fact a point here will be enough to secure the first place in the group. The Spanish side has some absentees for this game, but still come with a very decent squad. The Russians are also expected to field a strong squad, but there are some doubtful players with a knocks like Hulk, Bystrov and others. To be honest, I feel Malaga is obviously the better team here despite the circumstances and I feel they can get something from this game, the stats are also on their side - they lost just one away game in UEFA competitions, so I don't think they will lose again here.

Pick 61
Event: Arsenal - Montpellier
Pick: Arsenal -1.25 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The visitors are already out of the competition, while the other three teams in the group will be fighting for their place in the knockout stages. Arsenal will surely need a win here and considering how important the tournament for Arsene Wenger is, I expect full commitment from the gunners. They are rather strong at home and their confidence should be once again high after demolishing local rival Tottenham last weekend. In terms of team news there are both good and bad news for the London side - Walcott is out of this match with a shoulder injury, but left back Gibbs is back, as well as Gervinho. I really think the return of Gibbs will make a huge impact on this game, because since his injury  the left flank isn't working well and Podolski is struggling. As for the visitors their main goal will be to keep their pride and their slim chances to play in Europa League. They will surely miss Belhanda because of suspension and got some players who are doubtful for the game. To be honest, I can't see anything but an Arsenal win here and I think it will be with more than a goal.

I have some thoughts about the other games too, but I can't seem to find a good bet for now, once again, I will probably go for some live bets. Good luck everyone :)

Another win and Champions league picks

Hi guys,
The good streak continued yesterday when West Brom managed to win against the Saints at home, so that brought me a decent profit. With this pick I managed to achieve 10/12 picks won in the Premier League from the past 10 days and I am pretty satisfied with the result. What really surprised me was the fact the odds for West Brom reached 1.93 at some point which was insane, given the performance of the two teams since the start of the season, sometimes I really don't understand the bookies. However, the match went as expected with Southampton inefficient upfront and terrible at the back. So, today I am waiting for two picks in the Championship and in the mean time I think I found some good bets for the Champions league. Here we go:

Pick 34
Event: Anderlecht - Zenit
Pick: Both teams to score - no
Odds: 2.15 @ BetVictor
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I can't understand the odds here, given the fact the hosts still haven't scored a goal in this competition, in fact they've only managed 12 shots on goal for now. On the other hand, Zenit didn't look too dangerous in the fixture in Saint Petersburg either and now they are missing Hulk for this match. This makes me think there is a strong possibility that at least one of the teams doesn't manage to score a goal and I will take the generous odds BetVictor is giving.

Hulk is out for tonight's game.

Pick 35
Event: Dinamo Kiev - Porto
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.43 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Porto are doing great since the start of the competition and have the maximum 9 point from their first three games. This makes them almost certain to go through and despite that I doubt they will underestimate this game. They want to win the group in order to have a softer opponent in the knockout stages, but it is never easy to play in Ukraine, especially at this time of the year. This makes me think the visitors won't be unhappy with a draw. The odds seem nice and that is why I will give it a shot with small stakes.

Pick 36
Event: PSG - Dinamo Zagreb
Pick: PSG -2AH
Odds: 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The main reasons for the this pick are two - the obvious difference in class of both teams and most importantly the motivation of the hosts. After losing at home at the weekend they will want to bounce back as soon as possible and wash out the bad memories of their fans. Also, Ibrahimovic was sent off and I think his frustration may result in a great game against the Croatian side. If you add the fact the visitors are not likely to score goals here, I believe a trashing is quite possible and the -2AH line is somewhat safe option, so I am going for it.

After showing his bad side, I think Zlatan will show his good one tonight.

This is it for today, I might put some more bets on the games tomorrow, good luck everyone :)

Let's Rock'N Roll!

Hello dear readers,

I assume I am talking to myself since this is my first post in the blog and no one will be reading it, but you gotta start somehow:) The idea of this blog is to post my sports betting picks, and I hope this will help me be more disciplined, to keep a good tracking record of my picks and eventually find some other tipsters with whom I could share ideas and picks.
I won't be revealing much information about myself, except for a fact I am proud Arsenal supporter :) I will bet mostly on football and rarely on other sports like Formula 1, Tennis, Volleyball and other stuff. I will use variable stakes and although I don't have a mathematical system behind my bets, I won't try to predict the outcome of games, I will try to evaluate them and find markets, that contain value, since I believe this is the only way to make money:) That and having some inside info about fixed games, but since I don't have such, I will have to do it the hard way :)
I think this short introduction is enough and it is time to start with the serious part - there is Champions League this week and I can see some great picks available:

Pick 1
Event: Zenit - Anderlecht
Pick: Zenit (-1 EH)
Odds: 2.50 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I can't resist to get max stakes here, since the hosts really need this win in order to keep some chances of going through to the knockout stage. Zenit is the much better team in paper and despite the bad start, they are showing signs of improvement and should be able to win this game comfortably. It is also good to mention that the two teams met in the Europa League group stage last year and the Russians won both games with 3:1.

I hope Hulk is in good shape :)

Pick 2
Event: Dinamo Zagreb - PSG
Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 2.63 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Everybody is expecting PSG to win here and you ca easily see why - they are the better team and they desperately need the points. However, the odds for win are not too high and I am not sure there is value in them. That is why I prefer the option PSG to win to nil - Dinamo have no goals yet, they seem pretty toothless and the defense of the French team is solid. Big stakes, since I think the value is good.

Pick 3
Event: Ajax - Manchester City
Pick: Manchester City to win
Odds: 1.80 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Man City managed to somehow get a point from the game against Dortmund and this was really vital, since it keeps their chances to go to the knockout stages. However, they have to take 6 points from the two games with Ajax in order to be in a good position. They are the much better team and the morale is great after the had fought victory against West Brom at the weekend. That is why I think odds of 1.8 are good enough to go for it.

Joe Hart is the main reason City got a point in their last CL game.

Pick 4
Event: Spartak Moscow - Benfica
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams are with their back against the wall and need to win this, especially the Russians. They played decent games against Celtic and Barca, but got beaten in both of them with late goals. It seems they are capable of scoring, but also concede easily and Benfica has the fire power to capitalize. I expect a tough and open game with many goals, since the losing side is out and a draw is no good for both teams.


This is it for today, I will probably post my Europa League pick tomorrow and will try to find some more value in the CL :)

Good luck!