It was a dramatic Europa League evening with many late goals and some picks won and lost in the last minutes of the game. Overall, it was a good day and it ended up with 3 bets won and 2 lost and some decent profit.
The under 2.5 on San Siro won easily with Inter struggling to find a way past Partizan till the end of the game, and the most dangerous moment was in the first half when the Serbian side hit the bar. Elsewhere Genk managed to beat Sporting, despite falling behind early and that brought a nice profit, while Helsingborg and Hannover left it very late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 goal line. However, the luck in this game was compensated by the stupid way Athletico Madrid conceded at the end of their game despite being solid through the whole match. The other bet lost was the low stake on Maribor to beat Tottenham - the hosts took the lead, but didn't manage to hold on to it. I probably should've taken some AH bet for this game, cause it was the safer option, but I will be more careful in the future.
So, with the European competitions gone it is time for some betting on domestic leagues. Here are my first picks for this weekend:
Pick 11
Event: Southampton - Tottenham
Pick: Gareth Bale to score anytime
Odds: 3.00 @ 888Sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The traditional and more common reasoning behind this bet is simple - Southampton have the worst defense in the league and Tottenham are playing very well recently. The Saints are conceding many goals this season even at home, while the visitors are in top shape. Bale in particular is in good form and he missed the last two games, so he should be fresh for this one. However, there is another angle here, that makes me think there is value here. The Welsh star is now a proud father after last weekend and I feel he will be willing to score a goal and dedicate it to his child as most football players do. This will make him want to find the net even more and this extra motivation is the reason I am going for this bet.
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| I hope the newborn daughter will give Bale something extra. |
Pick 12
Event: Arsenal - QPR
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I am quite surprised by the odds of under 3 for this game for numerous reasons. First of all, Arsenal's biggest problem currently is the lack of fresh legs upfront. In their last two games against Norwich and Schalke they didn't create enough chances, in fact they did not create any chances. Despite the possible return of some players, I can't see huge difference for this game. Also, I expect QPR to lie deep in their own half with a very negative tactics and I think Arsenal might be able to keep a clean sheet here. In general, my expectations are for a hard fought home win lie 1:0, 2:0 max. Still, I am taking the under 3 line, since it is more safe and the odds are still very good.
Pick 13
Event: Stoke - Sunderland
Pick. Stoke to win
Odds: 2.10 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: After two away games good old Stoke are playing at home against a rather inconsistent Sunderland side. This is a great chance for the hosts to climb up the table and I think they will be able to expose the defensive weakness in their opponents. As for the other side of the pitch - Sunderland look toothless and were lucky to score against a 10-men Newcastle and I think Stoke can contain them. Full stake for a home win.
This is it for today, I will probably post some more picks tomorrow morning, good luck everyone :)
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