Hi guys,
I have two quick tips for the Premier League:
Event: Manchester City - Reading
Pick: City -2.5AH
Odds: 2.02 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The line was covered in both of the last two Reading games against
Sunderland and Arsenal. I really don't see a reason why the terrible run
shouldn't continue here, especially considering the opponent. The
terrible Reading defense could easilly concede a couple, while it will
be pretty hard for them to score against City.
Event: Southampton - Sunderland
Pick: Saints -0.75AH
Odds: 2.33 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: The Saints found their shape and are on a decent run recently,
especially at home. They are unbeaten for 4 games, two of which are
victories, On the other hand, Sunderland are not very good since the
start of the season and are not doing well away from home. The only
important miss is Lallana, but I feel the hosts could win this one with more than a goal.
This is it, gl all :)
Showing posts with label Southampton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Southampton. Show all posts
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Friday, December 7, 2012
English Premier League picks
Hi guys,
My pick on Europa League yesterday brought a tiny loss with Stuttgart somehow managing to lose at home against Molde, but at least the over at Tottenham - Panathinaikos won. This means the week so far is ok, but nothing special, but now it is time for some bets for the forthcoming Premier League matches:
Pick 80
Event: Southampton - Reading
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: The derby between the new boys will take place this Saturday and both teams are currently in the relegation zone. The reason for that is pretty simple - both teams are doing more than ok when it comes to attacking, but are terrible at the back and tend to self destruct on a regular basis. The need for points should mean both teams are determined to go for it the way they can - attacking and trying to score as many as possible. That is why I believe the odds for over 2.5 contain decent value and I am putting max stake.
Pick 81
Event: Swansea - Norwich
Pick: Norwich +0.5AH
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: Many people may seem surprised by that pick, considering the last two games of Swansea - wins against West Brom and Arsenal. However, Norwich are very, very solid recently and rarely lose games. Chris Hughton manages to use Paul Lambert's heritage very well, but also added some of his own ideas and now the club is very good both in defense and offense. I think the visitors have very good chances of taking something from this game and the odds of 2.15 are too good to miss, imo.
This is it for now, but I might put some more bets for Saturday's games later today and I will surely add picks for Sunday. Good luck everyone :)
My pick on Europa League yesterday brought a tiny loss with Stuttgart somehow managing to lose at home against Molde, but at least the over at Tottenham - Panathinaikos won. This means the week so far is ok, but nothing special, but now it is time for some bets for the forthcoming Premier League matches:
Pick 80
Event: Southampton - Reading
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: The derby between the new boys will take place this Saturday and both teams are currently in the relegation zone. The reason for that is pretty simple - both teams are doing more than ok when it comes to attacking, but are terrible at the back and tend to self destruct on a regular basis. The need for points should mean both teams are determined to go for it the way they can - attacking and trying to score as many as possible. That is why I believe the odds for over 2.5 contain decent value and I am putting max stake.
Pick 81
Event: Swansea - Norwich
Pick: Norwich +0.5AH
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: Many people may seem surprised by that pick, considering the last two games of Swansea - wins against West Brom and Arsenal. However, Norwich are very, very solid recently and rarely lose games. Chris Hughton manages to use Paul Lambert's heritage very well, but also added some of his own ideas and now the club is very good both in defense and offense. I think the visitors have very good chances of taking something from this game and the odds of 2.15 are too good to miss, imo.
This is it for now, but I might put some more bets for Saturday's games later today and I will surely add picks for Sunday. Good luck everyone :)
Friday, November 30, 2012
English Premier League picks - 01.12
Hi guys,
Once again my rather bad streak recently continued on Wednesday. Everyone expected West Brom to fail at some point, but the way they were beaten against Swansea was kinda surprising. Also, I obviously underestimated Benitez as he managed to transform Chelsea for a very short time and now they seem very dull, but steady at the back. Still, the Saints and Norwich drew their game, which returned some money back. Bad day in general, but now the weekend is coming and there is a good chance to win some cash. Here are my tips for the forthcoming Premier League games:
Pick 72
Event: Liverpool - Southampton
Pick: Southampton +1.25 AH
Odds: 1.98 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Despite the fact there is some progress in Liverpool, the Reds still have lots of problems and generally are not playing too well. They've managed to win by more than one goal just twice since the start of the season and they have a number of draws and narrows wins at home for a third consecutive season. On the other hand, the visitors are in a good shape currently and haven't lost 4 games in a roll in the league. I think they might get a point here, but even if they don't I feel they won't get beaten too convincingly and this line could return half win.
Pick 73
Event: Manchester City - Everton
Pick: Manchester City -1AH
Odds: 1.91 @ 188bet
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I think the key for this bet is squad depth. This is a third game for both teams inside a week, so there will be some tired legs and the team with more freshness will have a big advantage. I don't think there is any doubt who that is and the strong home form and much longer bench City are the clear favorite here. As for Everton - they look very tired in the last 20 minutes against Arsenal on Wednesday and for this game they surely miss skipper Neville, while the likes of Baynes, Miralas and Coleman are carrying a knocks and are not 100% sure for the game. This makes me think the value is on City, especially considering the fact they started keeping clean sheets recently and their defense starts to look as solid as last year.
This is it for now, but I might add another bet for Saturday later today or tomorrow and I will probably have some Sunday picks too, so stay tuned. Good luck!
Once again my rather bad streak recently continued on Wednesday. Everyone expected West Brom to fail at some point, but the way they were beaten against Swansea was kinda surprising. Also, I obviously underestimated Benitez as he managed to transform Chelsea for a very short time and now they seem very dull, but steady at the back. Still, the Saints and Norwich drew their game, which returned some money back. Bad day in general, but now the weekend is coming and there is a good chance to win some cash. Here are my tips for the forthcoming Premier League games:
Pick 72
Event: Liverpool - Southampton
Pick: Southampton +1.25 AH
Odds: 1.98 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Despite the fact there is some progress in Liverpool, the Reds still have lots of problems and generally are not playing too well. They've managed to win by more than one goal just twice since the start of the season and they have a number of draws and narrows wins at home for a third consecutive season. On the other hand, the visitors are in a good shape currently and haven't lost 4 games in a roll in the league. I think they might get a point here, but even if they don't I feel they won't get beaten too convincingly and this line could return half win.
Pick 73
Event: Manchester City - Everton
Pick: Manchester City -1AH
Odds: 1.91 @ 188bet
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I think the key for this bet is squad depth. This is a third game for both teams inside a week, so there will be some tired legs and the team with more freshness will have a big advantage. I don't think there is any doubt who that is and the strong home form and much longer bench City are the clear favorite here. As for Everton - they look very tired in the last 20 minutes against Arsenal on Wednesday and for this game they surely miss skipper Neville, while the likes of Baynes, Miralas and Coleman are carrying a knocks and are not 100% sure for the game. This makes me think the value is on City, especially considering the fact they started keeping clean sheets recently and their defense starts to look as solid as last year.
This is it for now, but I might add another bet for Saturday later today or tomorrow and I will probably have some Sunday picks too, so stay tuned. Good luck!
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
More Premier League picks
Hi guys,
The odds for my yesterday's pick on Sunderland was going up and down a little bit and currently is at 2.34 at Pinnacle, so you could even get bigger price than me, if you haven't bet yet. Today I have few more suggestions for the forthcoming games:
Pick 69 (good number :))
Event: Swansea - West Brom
Pick: West Brom +0.5 AH
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, there is not much to say about this game - West Brom are flying right now, they are solid at the back, they are very good in attack, they are disciplined, but also play with a lot of passion. In addition to that the manager actually substituted some of his players at the end of the game against Sunderland in order to keep them fresh. On the other hand, Swansea are in a terrible shape and seem unable to get more than a draw against solid teams, even at home. West Brom had some problems away at the start of the season, but now have two wins in a row, so I think the value is on them.
Pick 70
Event: Southampton - Norwich
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.69 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: This is a clash between two teams that started the season on a low, but are now in a great shape. The Saints now have two wins in their last games, while Norwich are unbeaten for quite some time. I think the disciplined team of the visitors will manage to take something from this game, but I don't expect them to manage to win. On the other hand, Southampton is playing well, so the draw here is a pretty logical choice at such high odds. Low to mid stakes though, since betting on a draw is always a risky choice.
Pick 71
Event: Chelsea - Fulham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Both teams are very generous in terms of conceding and scoring goals despite the fact their games this weekend finished 0:0 and 1:0. This was due to the tough opponents and the terrible weather. Although it is expected to rain again, I really think those two have the potential to have a goal fest on Tuesday. Biggest concern is the possible Benitez effect, but it is still too early about that.
This is it, the previews are shorter today, but I really didn't have the time to be more detailed, good luck everyone :)
The odds for my yesterday's pick on Sunderland was going up and down a little bit and currently is at 2.34 at Pinnacle, so you could even get bigger price than me, if you haven't bet yet. Today I have few more suggestions for the forthcoming games:
Pick 69 (good number :))
Event: Swansea - West Brom
Pick: West Brom +0.5 AH
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, there is not much to say about this game - West Brom are flying right now, they are solid at the back, they are very good in attack, they are disciplined, but also play with a lot of passion. In addition to that the manager actually substituted some of his players at the end of the game against Sunderland in order to keep them fresh. On the other hand, Swansea are in a terrible shape and seem unable to get more than a draw against solid teams, even at home. West Brom had some problems away at the start of the season, but now have two wins in a row, so I think the value is on them.
Pick 70
Event: Southampton - Norwich
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.69 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: This is a clash between two teams that started the season on a low, but are now in a great shape. The Saints now have two wins in their last games, while Norwich are unbeaten for quite some time. I think the disciplined team of the visitors will manage to take something from this game, but I don't expect them to manage to win. On the other hand, Southampton is playing well, so the draw here is a pretty logical choice at such high odds. Low to mid stakes though, since betting on a draw is always a risky choice.
Pick 71
Event: Chelsea - Fulham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Both teams are very generous in terms of conceding and scoring goals despite the fact their games this weekend finished 0:0 and 1:0. This was due to the tough opponents and the terrible weather. Although it is expected to rain again, I really think those two have the potential to have a goal fest on Tuesday. Biggest concern is the possible Benitez effect, but it is still too early about that.
This is it, the previews are shorter today, but I really didn't have the time to be more detailed, good luck everyone :)
Friday, November 16, 2012
More Premier League picks for the weekend
Hi guys,
With some more team news available today I will add some more picks for the Premier League. Here we go:
Pick 53
Event: Arsenal - Tottenham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: Normally, the North London derby is full of goals, you just have to take a look at results in recent years and you will find stuff like 5:2, 3:2, 3:3, 4:4 etc. Considering the condition of the two sides, I believe a high scoring game is again quite possible. Arsenal are finding their shape upfront, but they started conceding a lot recently, while Tottenham also seem unable to keep a clean sheet. This makes me think this could be the next classic game between the two rivals and I really like the odds for overs here.
Pick 54
Event: QPR - Southampton
Pick: Southampton +0 AH
Odds: 2.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The bottom two teams face each other in a match, that is absolutely crucial. The visitors are basically with their best squad here and QPR have some long term absentees and captain Park is doubtful about the game. I expect a really tough battle, but to be honest, I like the Saints more from both teams and I feel they are the better side here despite their obvious leaks. They seem unable to score enough despite the many chances created and are not solid enough in defense, but still they have shown some great stuff throughout the season and if they manage to find some consistency in the game, they could snatch the victory. On the other hand, QPR is full with many decent players, but seem to struggle in all areas of the pitch - they concede too many goals, the midfield finds it hard to keep the ball when needed and create enough chances and the forwards don't score enough. Of course, this is a big chance for them to make it right at home against the Saints, but this works vice versa and I am sure that the visitors will be very motivated too. That is why I am taking the DNB option for the Saints and I feel they could do the job here.
This is it for now, I will write some picks probably and there is F1 this weekend, so stay tuned. Good luck everyone :)
With some more team news available today I will add some more picks for the Premier League. Here we go:
Pick 53
Event: Arsenal - Tottenham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: Normally, the North London derby is full of goals, you just have to take a look at results in recent years and you will find stuff like 5:2, 3:2, 3:3, 4:4 etc. Considering the condition of the two sides, I believe a high scoring game is again quite possible. Arsenal are finding their shape upfront, but they started conceding a lot recently, while Tottenham also seem unable to keep a clean sheet. This makes me think this could be the next classic game between the two rivals and I really like the odds for overs here.
Pick 54
Event: QPR - Southampton
Pick: Southampton +0 AH
Odds: 2.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The bottom two teams face each other in a match, that is absolutely crucial. The visitors are basically with their best squad here and QPR have some long term absentees and captain Park is doubtful about the game. I expect a really tough battle, but to be honest, I like the Saints more from both teams and I feel they are the better side here despite their obvious leaks. They seem unable to score enough despite the many chances created and are not solid enough in defense, but still they have shown some great stuff throughout the season and if they manage to find some consistency in the game, they could snatch the victory. On the other hand, QPR is full with many decent players, but seem to struggle in all areas of the pitch - they concede too many goals, the midfield finds it hard to keep the ball when needed and create enough chances and the forwards don't score enough. Of course, this is a big chance for them to make it right at home against the Saints, but this works vice versa and I am sure that the visitors will be very motivated too. That is why I am taking the DNB option for the Saints and I feel they could do the job here.
| I feel Hughes will stay really worried after this match. |
This is it for now, I will write some picks probably and there is F1 this weekend, so stay tuned. Good luck everyone :)
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Saturday recap, final EPL picks and F1 pick
Hi guys,
I had two bets for Saturday and at the end of the day the result was one won and one lost with a small profit. As I expected Fulham and Everton both scored, but my bet for over 3 goals was in danger after the Toffees somehow managed to miss a dozen of clear cut chances throughout the game, but thankfully Fulham were more clinical. Later on the same day West Ham and Man City didn't manage to score any goals, so the bet there was lost. Today I already have a bet on Newcastle (+1 AH), but here are my two final picks for the Premier League and a bonus pick for F1:
Pick 29
Event: QPR - Reading
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 2.16 @ 188bet
Analysis: The game is very important for both teams as they lie in the bottom three of the table without a win. QPR will most likely miss the likes of Mbia, Zamora and skipper Park due to various reasons and this definitely will reflect their attacking performance. On the other hand, Reading are not scoring a lot away from home and QPR have scored just 7 times since the start of the campaign. Naturally, the defense of the teams are my main concern, but I think the odds for under 2.5 are too good to miss.
Pick 30
Event: West Brom - Southampton
Pick: West Brom to win
Odds: 1.75 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: West Brom started the season with the best defensive home record and managed to keep few clean sheets in the first couple of games. Since then they conceded twice in both of their last two games, but still managed to win one of them. As for the Saints they continue to struggle and seem unable to get results, despite taking part in some of the most entertaining games this season. I think their terrible defense will let them down once again here, since West Brom are expected to have all of their best players available (including skipper Brunt and Shane Long). On the other end of the pitch the solid defense of the home team should be able to do the job too.
Pick 31
Event: F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Pick: Alonso to finish on the podium
Odds: 1.83 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: With Vettel starting from last position, Alonso will be fully motivated to take full advantage and retake the momentum in the Championship title and I think a podium here will do the job. The odds for this happening are quite good, so let's go for it.
I had two bets for Saturday and at the end of the day the result was one won and one lost with a small profit. As I expected Fulham and Everton both scored, but my bet for over 3 goals was in danger after the Toffees somehow managed to miss a dozen of clear cut chances throughout the game, but thankfully Fulham were more clinical. Later on the same day West Ham and Man City didn't manage to score any goals, so the bet there was lost. Today I already have a bet on Newcastle (+1 AH), but here are my two final picks for the Premier League and a bonus pick for F1:
Pick 29
Event: QPR - Reading
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 2.16 @ 188bet
Analysis: The game is very important for both teams as they lie in the bottom three of the table without a win. QPR will most likely miss the likes of Mbia, Zamora and skipper Park due to various reasons and this definitely will reflect their attacking performance. On the other hand, Reading are not scoring a lot away from home and QPR have scored just 7 times since the start of the campaign. Naturally, the defense of the teams are my main concern, but I think the odds for under 2.5 are too good to miss.
| Zamora will likely miss the game, which is a big blow for QPR. |
Pick 30
Event: West Brom - Southampton
Pick: West Brom to win
Odds: 1.75 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: West Brom started the season with the best defensive home record and managed to keep few clean sheets in the first couple of games. Since then they conceded twice in both of their last two games, but still managed to win one of them. As for the Saints they continue to struggle and seem unable to get results, despite taking part in some of the most entertaining games this season. I think their terrible defense will let them down once again here, since West Brom are expected to have all of their best players available (including skipper Brunt and Shane Long). On the other end of the pitch the solid defense of the home team should be able to do the job too.
Pick 31
Event: F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Pick: Alonso to finish on the podium
Odds: 1.83 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: With Vettel starting from last position, Alonso will be fully motivated to take full advantage and retake the momentum in the Championship title and I think a podium here will do the job. The odds for this happening are quite good, so let's go for it.
| Vettel will start last and this is a great chance for Alonso. |
Monday, October 29, 2012
Weekend recap and Capital One Cup
Hello guys,
After the end of the weekend it is time for a recap. Well, it might seem somewhat arrogant, but with six out of seven bets on EPL won and a very solid profit in the bank, I can say it was a cracking weekend! I sincerely hope someone followed, cause after the good Saturday with three out of four bets won, the Sunday was even better with all three bets coming my way. As I expected it was a cracking Merseyside derby and my bet on both teams to score was won in the middle of the first half. The same happened in the game between Southampton and Spurs with Bale scoring in the 15th minute and winning my unorthodox bet, based on the fact he had a kid :) The only concern was Newcastle, but a lucky goal from Cisse deep in the game meant all bets for the day won :) I wish all weekends were like that and now the stats are getting better and better. After the first 17 bets on this blog the ROI reached the fantastic 133.25%! Of course I do not expect more than 115% in the long term, but who knows :) Enough with the past though, it is time to look in the future and this week we have Capital One Cup:
Pick 18
Event: Leeds - Southampton
Pick: Leeds to win
Odds: 2.62 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Both teams are not in their best shape recently, but my bet here is based purely on different approach to this cup between lower league teams and Premiership clubs. Leeds will be willing the win more and they managed to beat at home a very good team like Everton in the last round. Southampton, on the other hand, will be thinking mostly about the Premier League, where they are struggling a lot and I am sure the manager Nigel Adkins won't be too bothered about the Capital One Cup. Medium stakes since I don't really like this competition.
Pick 19
Event: Wigan - Bradford
Pick: Wigan -1EH
Odds: 1.91 @ 888sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: This pick is based purely on the huge difference in class between League 2 and the Premier League and the fact Wigan are better in attack than in defense. I don't think the visitors will be able to put them under pressure, and I expect Wigan to create plenty of chances, so a medium stake here too.
Tomorrow I will post some more picks, good luck everyone :)
After the end of the weekend it is time for a recap. Well, it might seem somewhat arrogant, but with six out of seven bets on EPL won and a very solid profit in the bank, I can say it was a cracking weekend! I sincerely hope someone followed, cause after the good Saturday with three out of four bets won, the Sunday was even better with all three bets coming my way. As I expected it was a cracking Merseyside derby and my bet on both teams to score was won in the middle of the first half. The same happened in the game between Southampton and Spurs with Bale scoring in the 15th minute and winning my unorthodox bet, based on the fact he had a kid :) The only concern was Newcastle, but a lucky goal from Cisse deep in the game meant all bets for the day won :) I wish all weekends were like that and now the stats are getting better and better. After the first 17 bets on this blog the ROI reached the fantastic 133.25%! Of course I do not expect more than 115% in the long term, but who knows :) Enough with the past though, it is time to look in the future and this week we have Capital One Cup:
Pick 18
Event: Leeds - Southampton
Pick: Leeds to win
Odds: 2.62 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Both teams are not in their best shape recently, but my bet here is based purely on different approach to this cup between lower league teams and Premiership clubs. Leeds will be willing the win more and they managed to beat at home a very good team like Everton in the last round. Southampton, on the other hand, will be thinking mostly about the Premier League, where they are struggling a lot and I am sure the manager Nigel Adkins won't be too bothered about the Capital One Cup. Medium stakes since I don't really like this competition.
 |
| I think Adkins will be thinking more about the Premier League. |
Pick 19
Event: Wigan - Bradford
Pick: Wigan -1EH
Odds: 1.91 @ 888sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: This pick is based purely on the huge difference in class between League 2 and the Premier League and the fact Wigan are better in attack than in defense. I don't think the visitors will be able to put them under pressure, and I expect Wigan to create plenty of chances, so a medium stake here too.
Tomorrow I will post some more picks, good luck everyone :)
Friday, October 26, 2012
Europa league results and first picks for the weekend
Hi guys,
It was a dramatic Europa League evening with many late goals and some picks won and lost in the last minutes of the game. Overall, it was a good day and it ended up with 3 bets won and 2 lost and some decent profit.
The under 2.5 on San Siro won easily with Inter struggling to find a way past Partizan till the end of the game, and the most dangerous moment was in the first half when the Serbian side hit the bar. Elsewhere Genk managed to beat Sporting, despite falling behind early and that brought a nice profit, while Helsingborg and Hannover left it very late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 goal line. However, the luck in this game was compensated by the stupid way Athletico Madrid conceded at the end of their game despite being solid through the whole match. The other bet lost was the low stake on Maribor to beat Tottenham - the hosts took the lead, but didn't manage to hold on to it. I probably should've taken some AH bet for this game, cause it was the safer option, but I will be more careful in the future.
So, with the European competitions gone it is time for some betting on domestic leagues. Here are my first picks for this weekend:
Pick 11
Event: Southampton - Tottenham
Pick: Gareth Bale to score anytime
Odds: 3.00 @ 888Sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The traditional and more common reasoning behind this bet is simple - Southampton have the worst defense in the league and Tottenham are playing very well recently. The Saints are conceding many goals this season even at home, while the visitors are in top shape. Bale in particular is in good form and he missed the last two games, so he should be fresh for this one. However, there is another angle here, that makes me think there is value here. The Welsh star is now a proud father after last weekend and I feel he will be willing to score a goal and dedicate it to his child as most football players do. This will make him want to find the net even more and this extra motivation is the reason I am going for this bet.
Pick 12
Event: Arsenal - QPR
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I am quite surprised by the odds of under 3 for this game for numerous reasons. First of all, Arsenal's biggest problem currently is the lack of fresh legs upfront. In their last two games against Norwich and Schalke they didn't create enough chances, in fact they did not create any chances. Despite the possible return of some players, I can't see huge difference for this game. Also, I expect QPR to lie deep in their own half with a very negative tactics and I think Arsenal might be able to keep a clean sheet here. In general, my expectations are for a hard fought home win lie 1:0, 2:0 max. Still, I am taking the under 3 line, since it is more safe and the odds are still very good.
Pick 13
Event: Stoke - Sunderland
Pick. Stoke to win
Odds: 2.10 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: After two away games good old Stoke are playing at home against a rather inconsistent Sunderland side. This is a great chance for the hosts to climb up the table and I think they will be able to expose the defensive weakness in their opponents. As for the other side of the pitch - Sunderland look toothless and were lucky to score against a 10-men Newcastle and I think Stoke can contain them. Full stake for a home win.
This is it for today, I will probably post some more picks tomorrow morning, good luck everyone :)
It was a dramatic Europa League evening with many late goals and some picks won and lost in the last minutes of the game. Overall, it was a good day and it ended up with 3 bets won and 2 lost and some decent profit.
The under 2.5 on San Siro won easily with Inter struggling to find a way past Partizan till the end of the game, and the most dangerous moment was in the first half when the Serbian side hit the bar. Elsewhere Genk managed to beat Sporting, despite falling behind early and that brought a nice profit, while Helsingborg and Hannover left it very late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 goal line. However, the luck in this game was compensated by the stupid way Athletico Madrid conceded at the end of their game despite being solid through the whole match. The other bet lost was the low stake on Maribor to beat Tottenham - the hosts took the lead, but didn't manage to hold on to it. I probably should've taken some AH bet for this game, cause it was the safer option, but I will be more careful in the future.
So, with the European competitions gone it is time for some betting on domestic leagues. Here are my first picks for this weekend:
Pick 11
Event: Southampton - Tottenham
Pick: Gareth Bale to score anytime
Odds: 3.00 @ 888Sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The traditional and more common reasoning behind this bet is simple - Southampton have the worst defense in the league and Tottenham are playing very well recently. The Saints are conceding many goals this season even at home, while the visitors are in top shape. Bale in particular is in good form and he missed the last two games, so he should be fresh for this one. However, there is another angle here, that makes me think there is value here. The Welsh star is now a proud father after last weekend and I feel he will be willing to score a goal and dedicate it to his child as most football players do. This will make him want to find the net even more and this extra motivation is the reason I am going for this bet.
 |
| I hope the newborn daughter will give Bale something extra. |
Pick 12
Event: Arsenal - QPR
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I am quite surprised by the odds of under 3 for this game for numerous reasons. First of all, Arsenal's biggest problem currently is the lack of fresh legs upfront. In their last two games against Norwich and Schalke they didn't create enough chances, in fact they did not create any chances. Despite the possible return of some players, I can't see huge difference for this game. Also, I expect QPR to lie deep in their own half with a very negative tactics and I think Arsenal might be able to keep a clean sheet here. In general, my expectations are for a hard fought home win lie 1:0, 2:0 max. Still, I am taking the under 3 line, since it is more safe and the odds are still very good.
Pick 13
Event: Stoke - Sunderland
Pick. Stoke to win
Odds: 2.10 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: After two away games good old Stoke are playing at home against a rather inconsistent Sunderland side. This is a great chance for the hosts to climb up the table and I think they will be able to expose the defensive weakness in their opponents. As for the other side of the pitch - Sunderland look toothless and were lucky to score against a 10-men Newcastle and I think Stoke can contain them. Full stake for a home win.
This is it for today, I will probably post some more picks tomorrow morning, good luck everyone :)
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