Premier League Tips for the weekend

Hi guys,
As promised yesterday, I am starting to support the blog again and today I will post my first picks for this season. So, after some careful consideration, here are my suggestions:

Event: Aston Villa - Sunderland
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: If you look at the last few games of both teams, you will find mostly unders which probably explains the good odds for this match. However, I feel there is a perfectly reasonable explanation - Villa had issues with the fitness of the likes of Benteke and Agbonlahor, I think Weimann also wasn't fully fit and this caused them problems with scoring goals. I think they are fine now and this should mean more attacking strength for the home side. On the other hand, Sunderland are playing much better since Gus Poyet is their manager, but they suffered some bad luck with referee decisions which meant they had to play most of their games very tight with 10 men and hope to get something. Despite that, they've shown tremendous improvement in their style and are now passing the ball much better and creating some good chances. I think it is time for their bad luck to end and I expect that both teams will score today and one of them at least twice, which will be enough to cover the line I chose.


Event: Cardiff - Arsenal
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I really like the spirit of the home side, they've shown they've got that battling mentality and also some good quality and I think they have a decent chance of surviving in the League. However, today they are facing a very strong Arsenal team that looks phenomenal this season. As you would expect, the odds for the Gunners are pretty low, so I think I will go for the unders here. Arsenal managed 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games - their defense is very solid, very drilled and Szczesny is probably the keeper in best form in the league right now. Considering the tough schedule with two games per week the EPL leaders are not afraid to rely on their defense and not put too much effort. Also, their away record is great and they really haven't conceded more than once away this season, which is a great achievement. This makes me think the Gunners will manage to win again with a clean sheet and the price for that is great.

The Pole in goal is great this season.

Event: West Ham - Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 AH
Odds: 3.54 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Many people will probably be surprised by this pick, since Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league this year. This is obviously true, but both of the team's wins came away from home and West Ham are probably the worst side at home and haven't won a game since the opening weekend. Also, this is one of the last chances of Martin Jol to save his job and this makes me think it will be a close game and the visitors might just nick it and the odds for the DNB are looking great to me.

Jol needs to win some points or he is finished.

Well, this is it for now guys. I wish you good luck and enjoy the Premier League this weekend :)

More Premier league tips

Hi guys,
I have two quick tips for the Premier League:

Event: Manchester City - Reading
Pick: City -2.5AH
Odds: 2.02 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The line was covered in both of the last two Reading games against Sunderland and Arsenal. I really don't see a reason why the terrible run shouldn't continue here, especially considering the opponent. The terrible Reading defense could easilly concede a couple, while it will be pretty hard for them to score against City.


Event: Southampton - Sunderland
Pick: Saints -0.75AH
Odds: 2.33 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: The Saints found their shape and are on a decent run recently, especially at home. They are unbeaten for 4 games, two of which are victories, On the other hand, Sunderland are not very good since the start of the season and are not doing well away from home. The only important miss is Lallana, but I feel the hosts could win this one with more than a goal.


This is it, gl all :)

Weekend recap and Premier League picks

Hello guys,
I am sorry that I didn't post my Sunday picks, but unfortunately I had a lot of stuff to do and just didn't have the time to do it. Generally, the Saturday's pre match picks lost me some money, but with Man United managing another comeback, I actually won some with my live bets. As always, since there is no way to add them here in time, I won't tell you more about it.
The good thing is that with all other competitions in Europe in a winter break, there will be English football only in the forthcoming months, starting with some games this Tuesday and Wednesday and I already have one pick prepared:

Pick 68
Event: Sunderland - QPR
Pick: Sunderland -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.25 @ Pinnacle
Stake:  5/10
Analysis: Well, Harry Rednkap is known for his immediate effect on the new teams he is appointed at and also, a change of the manager normally gives a boost to a team. Obviously, this is the reason why the weakest team in the Premier League so far is considered a favorite to take something from this game. However, I am at the opposite opinion and I think the odds for Sunderland are too generous here. I watched the QPR game at Old Trafford and I believe the only reason the visitors looked ok in a good chunk of the match is the very weak game of Man United. The hosts weren't pressing enough, they made a number of mistakes in the middle and QPR had like the 7-8 good spots, when they could have made decent attacks. The visitors managed to score just in one of them and afterwards United upped the tempo and could've scored 5, if they needed. This makes me think Harry has a very tough job to do and the odds of 2.25 for a home win contain value, despite the bad shape of the hosts. Medium stakes though, since the first goal is really vital here and if QPR gets it, it might be over.

I thought about putting a normal Rednkapp picture, but couldn't help it, when I saw this,big lol :)

This is it for now, I will post some more picks soon, good luck everyone :)

Fulham - Sunderland and a F1 bet

Hi guys,
Yesterday was truly a great day for me as a gunner and as a punter :) Arsenal won the North London derby with 5:2 once again, which meant my over 3 goals bet was won and despite missing some chances Walcott managed to score right at the end for a tasty win at good odds. Elsewhere, Reading and Everton didn't manage to score more than three goals, but the scoreline of 2:1 was enough to push to push the over 3 and return my money. The Saints however did not disappoint me and despite the predictions of all kinds of specialist and punters that QPR will win this match, Southampton confirmed my thoughts that the value is on them by winning 3:1 for a very good win at odds of 2.97 :)  Great day indeed, but now it is time to think about today. I have some suggestions that might interest you:


Pick 55
Event: Fulham - Sunderland
Pick: Under 2.75 goals
Odds: 1.88 @  Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Once again I am going against the opinion of most specialists and tipsters here. There were the astonishing 16 goals in the last three Fulham games in the league and the London side has the second best attack, which should point towards another high scoring game here. However, I feel this will not be the case as their opponents today are a team, that tries to keep it tight and doesn't score much themselves.This applies especially to their away games, so I believe the value is on unders and I am taking the under 2.75, since it offers some kind of insurance.




Pick 56
Event: Formula 1 USA Grand Prix
Pick: Winning margin: 0-5.999 sec
Odds: 2.30 @ Bwin
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: With two races to go, 10 points ahead and starting from pole Vettel looks a massive favorite for the title. Since most of his wins are from pole and with his car looking very well, he should be able to win this race, but the odds for this are too low and I suspect there is a certain space for a surprise from Hamilton. This is the reason why I will try another option here - the win to be with a slim margin of under 6 seconds. The main reason is that I think Vettel will win it, but at the end of the race he will try to eliminate event the slimmest chance of technical problem and even if he is 7,8 or 10 second ahead, he will drive safely in the final laps. Medium stakes bet.

If anyone can stop Vettel here, Ham is the man.

Good luck everyone :)

Profitable Thursday and Premier League picks

Hi guys,

Yesterday was another good day, that brought me some profit. The late pick on Anzhi was won, although not too convincingly, while Lazio did the job against Panathinaikos. Elsewhere Atletico Madrid didn't manage to score, but still two bets won, one lost and some more cash in the bank. For today I have a pick on Middlesbrough, that I published and with the weekend knocking at the door, it is time to concentrate one the Premier League:

Pick 45
Event: Arsenal - Fulham
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: The bookies continue giving good odds for unders on Arsenal home games and I continue to struggle understanding the reason for this. Arsenal's main problem currently is the lack of ideas and fresh legs upfront and with the list with injured and suspended players they have, I don't think it will get any better. On the other hand, their defense may seem suspect on some occasions, but in the Premier League they have conceded just 9 goals, most of them against quality teams. In their home games against mid or low table opponents, they look good. I expect the same against Fulham - the visitors won't park the bus, but still they will try to defend mostly, so I can't see them putting too much pressure on the gunners. On the other side of the pitch I expect the hosts to struggle to create many chances, so my general opinion is it will be a tight game. The under 3 line offers some insurance and the odds seem very good to me, so I will give it a shot.

Santi is one of the many Arsenal players that look tired.

Pick 46
Event: Everton - Sunderland
Pick: Everton -1 EH
Odds: 2.50 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Everton are probably playing the most exciting football in the Premier League. They are extremely dangerous upfront and are creating a lot of chances. Against Fulham last week they probably had like 10 clear cut chances and only the lack of luck and a number of misses prevented them from winning the game. At home against a poor Sunderland team I am more than confident they will again create a lot of opportunities, let's hope they don't miss so much this time.


This is it for now, tomorrow I will probably post some more pick, good luck to everyone :)

Europa league results and first picks for the weekend

Hi guys,

It was a dramatic Europa League evening with many late goals and some picks won and lost in the last minutes of the game. Overall, it was a good day and it ended up with 3 bets won and 2 lost and some decent profit.
The under 2.5 on San Siro won easily with Inter struggling to find a way past Partizan till the end of the game, and the most dangerous moment was in the first half when the Serbian side hit the bar. Elsewhere Genk managed to beat Sporting, despite falling behind early and that brought a nice profit, while Helsingborg and Hannover left it very late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 goal line. However, the luck in this game was compensated by the stupid way Athletico Madrid conceded at the end of their game despite being solid through the whole match. The other bet lost was the low stake on Maribor to beat Tottenham - the hosts took the lead, but didn't manage to hold on to it. I probably should've taken some AH bet for this game, cause it was the safer option, but I will be more careful in the future.

So, with the European competitions gone it is time for some betting on domestic leagues. Here are my first picks for this weekend:

Pick 11
Event: Southampton - Tottenham
Pick: Gareth Bale to score anytime
Odds: 3.00 @ 888Sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The traditional and more common reasoning behind this bet is simple - Southampton have the worst defense in the league and Tottenham are playing very well recently. The Saints are conceding many goals this season even at home, while the visitors are in top shape. Bale in particular is in good form and he missed the last two games, so he should be fresh for this one. However, there is another angle here, that makes me think there is value here. The Welsh star is now a proud father after last weekend and I feel he will be willing to score a goal and dedicate it to his child as most football players do. This will make him want to find the net even more and this extra motivation is the reason I am going for this bet.

I hope the newborn daughter will give Bale something extra.

Pick 12
Event: Arsenal - QPR
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I am quite surprised by the odds of under 3 for this game for numerous reasons. First of all, Arsenal's biggest problem currently is the lack of fresh legs upfront. In their last two games against Norwich and Schalke they didn't create enough chances, in fact they did not create any chances. Despite the possible return of some players, I can't see huge difference for this game. Also, I expect QPR to lie deep in their own half with a very negative tactics and I think Arsenal might be able to keep a clean sheet here. In general, my expectations are for a hard fought home win lie 1:0, 2:0 max. Still, I am taking the under 3 line, since it is more safe and the odds are still very good.

Pick 13
Event: Stoke - Sunderland
Pick. Stoke to win
Odds: 2.10 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: After two away games good old Stoke are playing at home against  a rather inconsistent Sunderland side. This is a great chance for the hosts to climb up the table and I think they will be able to expose the defensive weakness in their opponents. As for the other side of the pitch - Sunderland look toothless and were lucky to score against a 10-men Newcastle and I think Stoke can contain them. Full stake for a home win.


This is it for today, I will probably post some more picks tomorrow morning, good luck everyone :)