Premier League Tips for the weekend

Hi guys,
As promised yesterday, I am starting to support the blog again and today I will post my first picks for this season. So, after some careful consideration, here are my suggestions:

Event: Aston Villa - Sunderland
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: If you look at the last few games of both teams, you will find mostly unders which probably explains the good odds for this match. However, I feel there is a perfectly reasonable explanation - Villa had issues with the fitness of the likes of Benteke and Agbonlahor, I think Weimann also wasn't fully fit and this caused them problems with scoring goals. I think they are fine now and this should mean more attacking strength for the home side. On the other hand, Sunderland are playing much better since Gus Poyet is their manager, but they suffered some bad luck with referee decisions which meant they had to play most of their games very tight with 10 men and hope to get something. Despite that, they've shown tremendous improvement in their style and are now passing the ball much better and creating some good chances. I think it is time for their bad luck to end and I expect that both teams will score today and one of them at least twice, which will be enough to cover the line I chose.


Event: Cardiff - Arsenal
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I really like the spirit of the home side, they've shown they've got that battling mentality and also some good quality and I think they have a decent chance of surviving in the League. However, today they are facing a very strong Arsenal team that looks phenomenal this season. As you would expect, the odds for the Gunners are pretty low, so I think I will go for the unders here. Arsenal managed 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games - their defense is very solid, very drilled and Szczesny is probably the keeper in best form in the league right now. Considering the tough schedule with two games per week the EPL leaders are not afraid to rely on their defense and not put too much effort. Also, their away record is great and they really haven't conceded more than once away this season, which is a great achievement. This makes me think the Gunners will manage to win again with a clean sheet and the price for that is great.

The Pole in goal is great this season.

Event: West Ham - Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 AH
Odds: 3.54 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Many people will probably be surprised by this pick, since Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league this year. This is obviously true, but both of the team's wins came away from home and West Ham are probably the worst side at home and haven't won a game since the opening weekend. Also, this is one of the last chances of Martin Jol to save his job and this makes me think it will be a close game and the visitors might just nick it and the odds for the DNB are looking great to me.

Jol needs to win some points or he is finished.

Well, this is it for now guys. I wish you good luck and enjoy the Premier League this weekend :)

More Premier League picks

Hi guys,
The odds for my yesterday's pick on Sunderland was going up and down a little bit and currently is at 2.34 at Pinnacle, so you could even get bigger price than me, if you haven't bet yet. Today I have few more suggestions for the forthcoming games:

Pick 69 (good number :))
Event: Swansea - West Brom
Pick: West Brom +0.5 AH
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, there is not much to say about this game - West Brom are flying right now, they are solid at the back, they are very good in attack, they are disciplined, but also play with a lot of passion. In addition to that the manager actually substituted some of his players at the end of the game against Sunderland in order to keep them fresh. On the other hand, Swansea are in a terrible shape and seem unable to get more than a draw against solid teams, even at home. West Brom had some problems away at the start of the season, but now have two wins in a row, so I think the value is on them.

Pick 70
Event: Southampton - Norwich
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.69 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: This is a clash between two teams that started the season on a low, but are now in a great shape. The Saints now have two wins in their last games, while Norwich are unbeaten for quite some time. I think the disciplined team of the visitors will manage to take something from this game, but I don't expect them to manage to win. On the other hand, Southampton is playing well, so the draw here is a pretty logical choice at such high odds. Low to mid stakes though, since betting on a draw is always a risky choice.


Pick 71
Event: Chelsea - Fulham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Both teams are very generous in terms of conceding and scoring goals despite the fact their games this weekend finished 0:0 and 1:0. This was due to the tough opponents and the terrible weather. Although it is expected to rain again, I really think those two have the potential to have a goal fest on Tuesday. Biggest concern is the possible Benitez effect, but it is still too early about that.

This is it, the previews are shorter today, but I really didn't have the time to be more detailed, good luck everyone :)

More betting tips for the Premier League

Hi guys,
As I told you yesterday, I will put some more tips for the Premier league today. For now I will just add one pick for today and later I will write about Sunday's games:

Pick 67
Event: Stoke - Fulham
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: The two teams that meet are very different in terms of average goals in their games. Most of Stoke's games are under and they are keeping it tight at the back and don't score too much. Fulham are completely different and under Martin Jol they are all out attacking which leads to many goals for and against them. The reason I think there is value on the over 2.5 here is simple - I think the visitors will be able to score at least once with the firepower they possess, but the suspension of Hangeland means they will have a lot of trouble dealing with set pieces, which is the main weapon of the hosts.

Good luck everyone :)

Fulham - Sunderland and a F1 bet

Hi guys,
Yesterday was truly a great day for me as a gunner and as a punter :) Arsenal won the North London derby with 5:2 once again, which meant my over 3 goals bet was won and despite missing some chances Walcott managed to score right at the end for a tasty win at good odds. Elsewhere, Reading and Everton didn't manage to score more than three goals, but the scoreline of 2:1 was enough to push to push the over 3 and return my money. The Saints however did not disappoint me and despite the predictions of all kinds of specialist and punters that QPR will win this match, Southampton confirmed my thoughts that the value is on them by winning 3:1 for a very good win at odds of 2.97 :)  Great day indeed, but now it is time to think about today. I have some suggestions that might interest you:


Pick 55
Event: Fulham - Sunderland
Pick: Under 2.75 goals
Odds: 1.88 @  Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Once again I am going against the opinion of most specialists and tipsters here. There were the astonishing 16 goals in the last three Fulham games in the league and the London side has the second best attack, which should point towards another high scoring game here. However, I feel this will not be the case as their opponents today are a team, that tries to keep it tight and doesn't score much themselves.This applies especially to their away games, so I believe the value is on unders and I am taking the under 2.75, since it offers some kind of insurance.




Pick 56
Event: Formula 1 USA Grand Prix
Pick: Winning margin: 0-5.999 sec
Odds: 2.30 @ Bwin
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: With two races to go, 10 points ahead and starting from pole Vettel looks a massive favorite for the title. Since most of his wins are from pole and with his car looking very well, he should be able to win this race, but the odds for this are too low and I suspect there is a certain space for a surprise from Hamilton. This is the reason why I will try another option here - the win to be with a slim margin of under 6 seconds. The main reason is that I think Vettel will win it, but at the end of the race he will try to eliminate event the slimmest chance of technical problem and even if he is 7,8 or 10 second ahead, he will drive safely in the final laps. Medium stakes bet.

If anyone can stop Vettel here, Ham is the man.

Good luck everyone :)

Profitable Thursday and Premier League picks

Hi guys,

Yesterday was another good day, that brought me some profit. The late pick on Anzhi was won, although not too convincingly, while Lazio did the job against Panathinaikos. Elsewhere Atletico Madrid didn't manage to score, but still two bets won, one lost and some more cash in the bank. For today I have a pick on Middlesbrough, that I published and with the weekend knocking at the door, it is time to concentrate one the Premier League:

Pick 45
Event: Arsenal - Fulham
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: The bookies continue giving good odds for unders on Arsenal home games and I continue to struggle understanding the reason for this. Arsenal's main problem currently is the lack of ideas and fresh legs upfront and with the list with injured and suspended players they have, I don't think it will get any better. On the other hand, their defense may seem suspect on some occasions, but in the Premier League they have conceded just 9 goals, most of them against quality teams. In their home games against mid or low table opponents, they look good. I expect the same against Fulham - the visitors won't park the bus, but still they will try to defend mostly, so I can't see them putting too much pressure on the gunners. On the other side of the pitch I expect the hosts to struggle to create many chances, so my general opinion is it will be a tight game. The under 3 line offers some insurance and the odds seem very good to me, so I will give it a shot.

Santi is one of the many Arsenal players that look tired.

Pick 46
Event: Everton - Sunderland
Pick: Everton -1 EH
Odds: 2.50 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Everton are probably playing the most exciting football in the Premier League. They are extremely dangerous upfront and are creating a lot of chances. Against Fulham last week they probably had like 10 clear cut chances and only the lack of luck and a number of misses prevented them from winning the game. At home against a poor Sunderland team I am more than confident they will again create a lot of opportunities, let's hope they don't miss so much this time.


This is it for now, tomorrow I will probably post some more pick, good luck to everyone :)

Premier League tips for 3-4th November

Hi guys,

After writing the first pick for the EPL weekend yesterday it is now time for a larger portion of bets :) Last weekend was phenomenal as I managed to hit 6/7 wins for a great profit and I really hope this one is good too. Here are my first few selections (the others will be posted tomorrow or on Sunday):

Pick 27
Event: Fulhan - Everton
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.43 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This one has both to score and overs written all over it - with Berbatov Fulham are scoring for fun, especially at home and most of their games since the start of the season are with both teams scoring. Same applies to Everton who managed to score in every single game from the start of the campaign except for the visit of West Brom, who were playing very well in defense in the first few games. With Pienaar back it looks like both teams have their best attacking players available and this should be a goal thriller. I was thinking about getting over 3.5, but this is the safer option and the odds are still great.

Pienaar is back to restore his partnership with Baynes.

Pick 28
Event: West Ham - Man City
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.67 @ Bet365
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Man City continue to concede goals, especially away from home and the champions still can't keep a clean sheet in their away games. I don't see them doing so against a very solid West Ham side, which is playing very well at Upton Park. Carrol was a great fit and is capable of producing chances for the midfield, which leads to a lot of goals, especially from the likes of Nolan. As for City's ability to score, I don't think anybody doubts that, so the odds for both to score seem pretty generous to me and I am going for it with full stake.


This is it for today, you can expect more from me in the following days, best of luck :)

Few more EPL bets

Hi guys,
I've done my Saturday routine, which includes breakfast and exploring odds for the EPL matchday and here are the picks I like:

Pick 14
Event: Reading - Fulham
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.62 @ Bet365 (offered by various bookies)
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, in this game both this are capable than scoring, but also their defenses are not very solid. All of Reading's home games this season were GG and most of Fulham's away games too. Both teams have most of their attacking players fit, so I can easily see them both scoring.


Pick 15
Event: Wigan - West Ham
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Pretty much the same as the other game - Wigan tend to score some goals, but they also concede often. West Ham are normally capable of keeping a clean sheet, but that applies to their home games, away is a different story. I expect a lot of goals in this game and if you are more adventurous you can also try over 3.5.


Good luck and have a profitable day :)