As promised yesterday, I am starting to support the blog again and today I will post my first picks for this season. So, after some careful consideration, here are my suggestions:
Event: Aston Villa - Sunderland
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: If you look at the last few games of both teams, you will find mostly unders which probably explains the good odds for this match. However, I feel there is a perfectly reasonable explanation - Villa had issues with the fitness of the likes of Benteke and Agbonlahor, I think Weimann also wasn't fully fit and this caused them problems with scoring goals. I think they are fine now and this should mean more attacking strength for the home side. On the other hand, Sunderland are playing much better since Gus Poyet is their manager, but they suffered some bad luck with referee decisions which meant they had to play most of their games very tight with 10 men and hope to get something. Despite that, they've shown tremendous improvement in their style and are now passing the ball much better and creating some good chances. I think it is time for their bad luck to end and I expect that both teams will score today and one of them at least twice, which will be enough to cover the line I chose.
Event: Cardiff - Arsenal
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I really like the spirit of the home side, they've shown they've got that battling mentality and also some good quality and I think they have a decent chance of surviving in the League. However, today they are facing a very strong Arsenal team that looks phenomenal this season. As you would expect, the odds for the Gunners are pretty low, so I think I will go for the unders here. Arsenal managed 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games - their defense is very solid, very drilled and Szczesny is probably the keeper in best form in the league right now. Considering the tough schedule with two games per week the EPL leaders are not afraid to rely on their defense and not put too much effort. Also, their away record is great and they really haven't conceded more than once away this season, which is a great achievement. This makes me think the Gunners will manage to win again with a clean sheet and the price for that is great.
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| The Pole in goal is great this season. |
Event: West Ham - Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 AH
Odds: 3.54 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Many people will probably be surprised by this pick, since Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league this year. This is obviously true, but both of the team's wins came away from home and West Ham are probably the worst side at home and haven't won a game since the opening weekend. Also, this is one of the last chances of Martin Jol to save his job and this makes me think it will be a close game and the visitors might just nick it and the odds for the DNB are looking great to me.
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| Jol needs to win some points or he is finished. |
Well, this is it for now guys. I wish you good luck and enjoy the Premier League this weekend :)
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