Weekend recap and Premier League picks

Hello guys,
I am sorry that I didn't post my Sunday picks, but unfortunately I had a lot of stuff to do and just didn't have the time to do it. Generally, the Saturday's pre match picks lost me some money, but with Man United managing another comeback, I actually won some with my live bets. As always, since there is no way to add them here in time, I won't tell you more about it.
The good thing is that with all other competitions in Europe in a winter break, there will be English football only in the forthcoming months, starting with some games this Tuesday and Wednesday and I already have one pick prepared:

Pick 68
Event: Sunderland - QPR
Pick: Sunderland -0.5 AH
Odds: 2.25 @ Pinnacle
Stake:  5/10
Analysis: Well, Harry Rednkap is known for his immediate effect on the new teams he is appointed at and also, a change of the manager normally gives a boost to a team. Obviously, this is the reason why the weakest team in the Premier League so far is considered a favorite to take something from this game. However, I am at the opposite opinion and I think the odds for Sunderland are too generous here. I watched the QPR game at Old Trafford and I believe the only reason the visitors looked ok in a good chunk of the match is the very weak game of Man United. The hosts weren't pressing enough, they made a number of mistakes in the middle and QPR had like the 7-8 good spots, when they could have made decent attacks. The visitors managed to score just in one of them and afterwards United upped the tempo and could've scored 5, if they needed. This makes me think Harry has a very tough job to do and the odds of 2.25 for a home win contain value, despite the bad shape of the hosts. Medium stakes though, since the first goal is really vital here and if QPR gets it, it might be over.

I thought about putting a normal Rednkapp picture, but couldn't help it, when I saw this,big lol :)

This is it for now, I will post some more picks soon, good luck everyone :)

More Premier League picks for the weekend

Hi guys,

With some more team news available today I will add some more picks for the Premier League. Here we go:


Pick 53
Event: Arsenal - Tottenham
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 2.04 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: Normally, the North London derby is full of goals, you just have to take a look at results in recent years and you will find stuff like 5:2, 3:2, 3:3, 4:4 etc. Considering the condition of the two sides, I believe a high scoring game is again quite possible. Arsenal are finding their shape upfront, but they started conceding a lot recently, while Tottenham also seem unable to keep a clean sheet. This makes me think this could be the next classic game between the two rivals and I really like the odds for overs here.

Pick 54
Event: QPR - Southampton
Pick: Southampton +0 AH
Odds: 2.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The bottom two teams face each other in a match, that is absolutely crucial. The visitors are basically with their best squad here and QPR have some long term absentees and captain Park is doubtful about the game. I expect a really tough battle, but to be honest, I like the Saints more from both teams and I feel they are the better side here despite their obvious leaks. They seem unable to score enough despite the many chances created and are not solid enough in defense, but still they have shown some great stuff throughout the season and if they manage to find some consistency in the game, they could snatch the victory. On the other hand, QPR is full with many decent players, but seem to struggle in all areas of the pitch - they concede too many goals, the midfield finds it hard to keep the ball when needed and create enough chances and the forwards don't score enough. Of course, this is a big chance for them to make it right at home against the Saints, but this works vice versa and I am sure that the visitors will be very motivated too. That is why I am taking the DNB option for the Saints and I feel they could do the job here.

I feel Hughes will stay really worried after this match.

This is it for now, I will write some picks probably and there is F1 this weekend, so stay tuned. Good luck everyone :)

More Premier league football picks for Saturday

Hi guys,

Yesterday I had one bet only, but it was a successful one - Middlesbrough maintained their good run by beating Sheffield Wednesday at home. As you probably know, if you are a regular reader of this blog, I already have two bets for today's Premier League games: under 3 goals for Arsenal - Fulham and Everton -1.5 AH goals against Sunderland at home. I was considering few more bets yesterday, but I left my final decision for today. Here we go:

Pick 47
Event: Stoke City - QPR
Pick: Stoke -0.5AH
Odds: 2.05 @ 188bet
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: Both team are not performing very well since the start of the season, but Stoke look much more solid at least in defense. Their story is similar every year - they have some tough periods, but manage to take a good number of points at home against weaker teams. They still have just one win since the start of the league and I believe this is a good opportunity to take some fresh air here against QPR, who have just 4 points up to this point.

Pullis will want a home win against a weak QPR side today.

Pick 48
Event: Wigan - West Brom
Pick: West Brom +0AH
Odds:  2.55 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: West Brom is performing very well since the start of the season, but they still haven't got a win away from home. However, all of their opponents in those game were better teams than Wigan, probably except Aston Villa which are about the same class. Wigan on the other hand have just one win at home and it came against a weak visitors like West Ham. This makes me think the visitors could achieve their first success away from home considering their decent defense and strong attack. I am taking the DNB option though, since the odds are still very good and this offers some insurance.

This is it from me, you could probably expect some more tips tomorrow, good luck everyone :)

Saturday recap, final EPL picks and F1 pick

Hi guys,

I had two bets for Saturday and at the end of the day the result was one won and one lost with a small profit. As I expected Fulham and Everton both scored, but my bet for over 3 goals was in danger after the Toffees somehow managed to miss a dozen of clear cut chances throughout the game, but thankfully Fulham were more clinical. Later on the same day West Ham and Man City didn't manage to score any goals, so the bet there was lost. Today I already have a bet on Newcastle (+1 AH), but here are my two final picks for the Premier League and a bonus pick for F1:


Pick 29
Event: QPR - Reading
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 2.16 @ 188bet
Analysis: The game is very important for both teams as they lie in the bottom three of the table without a win. QPR will most likely miss the likes of Mbia, Zamora and skipper Park due to various reasons and this definitely will reflect their attacking performance. On the other hand, Reading are not scoring a lot away from home and QPR have scored just 7 times since the start of the campaign. Naturally, the defense of the teams are my main concern, but I think the odds for under 2.5 are too good to miss.

Zamora will likely miss the game, which is a big blow for QPR.

Pick 30
Event: West Brom - Southampton
Pick: West Brom to win
Odds: 1.75 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: West Brom started the season with the best defensive home record and managed to keep few clean sheets in the first couple of games. Since then they conceded twice in both of their last two games, but still managed to win one of them. As for the Saints they continue to struggle and seem unable to get results, despite taking part in some of the most entertaining games this season. I think their terrible defense will let them down once again here, since West Brom are expected to have all of their best players available (including skipper Brunt and Shane Long). On the other end of the pitch the solid defense of the home team should be able to do the job too.


Pick 31
Event: F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Pick: Alonso to finish on the podium
Odds: 1.83 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: With Vettel starting from last position, Alonso will be fully motivated to take full advantage and retake the momentum in the Championship title and I think a podium here will do the job. The odds for this happening are quite good, so let's go for it.

Vettel will start last and this is a great chance for Alonso.

Europa league results and first picks for the weekend

Hi guys,

It was a dramatic Europa League evening with many late goals and some picks won and lost in the last minutes of the game. Overall, it was a good day and it ended up with 3 bets won and 2 lost and some decent profit.
The under 2.5 on San Siro won easily with Inter struggling to find a way past Partizan till the end of the game, and the most dangerous moment was in the first half when the Serbian side hit the bar. Elsewhere Genk managed to beat Sporting, despite falling behind early and that brought a nice profit, while Helsingborg and Hannover left it very late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 goal line. However, the luck in this game was compensated by the stupid way Athletico Madrid conceded at the end of their game despite being solid through the whole match. The other bet lost was the low stake on Maribor to beat Tottenham - the hosts took the lead, but didn't manage to hold on to it. I probably should've taken some AH bet for this game, cause it was the safer option, but I will be more careful in the future.

So, with the European competitions gone it is time for some betting on domestic leagues. Here are my first picks for this weekend:

Pick 11
Event: Southampton - Tottenham
Pick: Gareth Bale to score anytime
Odds: 3.00 @ 888Sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The traditional and more common reasoning behind this bet is simple - Southampton have the worst defense in the league and Tottenham are playing very well recently. The Saints are conceding many goals this season even at home, while the visitors are in top shape. Bale in particular is in good form and he missed the last two games, so he should be fresh for this one. However, there is another angle here, that makes me think there is value here. The Welsh star is now a proud father after last weekend and I feel he will be willing to score a goal and dedicate it to his child as most football players do. This will make him want to find the net even more and this extra motivation is the reason I am going for this bet.

I hope the newborn daughter will give Bale something extra.

Pick 12
Event: Arsenal - QPR
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I am quite surprised by the odds of under 3 for this game for numerous reasons. First of all, Arsenal's biggest problem currently is the lack of fresh legs upfront. In their last two games against Norwich and Schalke they didn't create enough chances, in fact they did not create any chances. Despite the possible return of some players, I can't see huge difference for this game. Also, I expect QPR to lie deep in their own half with a very negative tactics and I think Arsenal might be able to keep a clean sheet here. In general, my expectations are for a hard fought home win lie 1:0, 2:0 max. Still, I am taking the under 3 line, since it is more safe and the odds are still very good.

Pick 13
Event: Stoke - Sunderland
Pick. Stoke to win
Odds: 2.10 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: After two away games good old Stoke are playing at home against  a rather inconsistent Sunderland side. This is a great chance for the hosts to climb up the table and I think they will be able to expose the defensive weakness in their opponents. As for the other side of the pitch - Sunderland look toothless and were lucky to score against a 10-men Newcastle and I think Stoke can contain them. Full stake for a home win.


This is it for today, I will probably post some more picks tomorrow morning, good luck everyone :)