DFB Pokal pick for today

Hi guys,
There is Capital One Cup game today between Leeds and Chelsea and although I think there is a good chance of a surprise, I probably will be betting live on this one. Instead, I think I found some good value in the DFB Pokal match between Dortmund and Hannover:

Pick 85
Event: Dortmund - Hannover
Pick: Over 3 goals
Odds: 1.65 @ 188bet
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I do not bet too often on German games, but I will make an exception for this one. Dortmund are way too far behind Bayern in the League and the CL is rather unrealistic target, so basically the Cup is their best chance of winning a trophy this season. This makes me think they will play their best team in the last game of the year and will score quite a few goals against a Hannover team with a very suspect defense. The visitors on the other side are also capable of scoring and don't forget this is a cup tie - it doesn't manage with what goal difference you go out, so there could be a lot of space towards the end of the game. I think Dortmund will win it comfortably, but the odds for over 3 are good and offer decent insurance, so I am on it.

Good luck everyone :)