Crazy, crazy Arsenal and Capital One Cup day two

Hi guys,

Yesterday's matches in Capital One Cup weren't exactly successful in terms of betting, but being Arsenal fan I can't say I didn't enjoy it, lol. The 7:5 win against Reading was probably one of the most extraordinary games of football I have ever seen in my life. I am literally speechless and I believe I won't forget this game ever.

Theo showed he is worth a new contract.

As for the betting, the day wasn't that good. My bets on Arsenal were lost as also the one on Wigan covering a handicap. However, Leeds managed to beat Southampton which compensates some of the losses and it wasn't that bad after all.
For today I already have a bet on Chelsea (0AH), and I like two more bets with big odds and small stakes:

Pick 24
Event: Norwich - Tottenham
Pick: Draw (Norwich + 1EH)
Odds: 4.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Both teams are expected to field a weakened team for this match as most of Premier League teams do in the competition. I feel it will be a very close game and I can't really find some value in the more common markets. However, I believe Spurs will be able to just win it and I really like the odds for them doing so by one goal margin.

Pick 25
Event: Liverpool - Swansea
Pick: Liverpool - 2EH
Odds: 5.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 2/10
Analysis: Well, this bet is based on the improved performance of the Liverpool youngsters recently. They are showing some really good stuff and have been performing very well in the domestic cups for the past two years. Also, Swansea are clearly having issues in defense and that is why I believe they could get trashed here and a small bet on -2 EH is worth a shot.

Best of luck to every one :)

Two final bets on Capital One Cup

Hi guys,

I was thinking about the Arsenal game tonight, reading about the squad and stuff and I have two more picks for this evening. Looking at the odds, I feel small bets on Serge Gnabry and Thomas Eisfeld to score anytime are a good option. Both players have been very impressive in the pre season, in under 21 games and also in the first leg of Capital one cup and I really feel one of them could be on the score sheet tonight. Small stakes for both, here are the details:

Picks 22 and 23
Event: Reading - Arsenal
Pick: Gnabry to score anytime ; Thomas Eisfeld to score anytime
Odds: 4.33 @ 888 sport ; 5.50 @ Skybet
Stake: 3/10 ; 2/10

I feel the two youngsters can score again today.

 Good luck everyone :)

Some more picks for Capital One Cup

Hi guys,

I was looking at the odds for the other Capital One Cup matches and I found some bets I think contain some value. Here are two quick picks for today:

Pick 20
Event: Chelsea - Manchester United
Pick: Chelsea 0 AH
Odds: 1.70 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the emotions in the two teams. After the terrible referee decisions on Sunday Chelsea were left very frustrated and angry. I think they will do their best to revenge and this will give them some extra motivation to win the game.

Terrible performance on Sunday by Clattenburg.

Pick 21
Event: Reading - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal
Odds: 1.91 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: I was wondering if I should take this bet, but the good Arsenal record in the League Cup and the fact they have won five out of five games against Reading made up my mind. The Gooners will probably have a balanced line up with seniors like Koscielny, Jenkinsons, Coquelin, Arshavin involved as well as some very promising youngsters like Martinez, Eisfeld and Gnabri. On the other hand Reading are really struggling in the Premier League and this should be their top priority.

Weekend recap and Capital One Cup

Hello guys,

After the end of the weekend it is time for a recap. Well, it might seem somewhat arrogant, but with six out of seven bets on EPL won and a very solid profit in the bank, I can say it was a cracking weekend! I sincerely hope someone followed, cause after the good Saturday with three out of four bets won, the Sunday was even better with all three bets coming my way. As I expected it was a cracking Merseyside derby and my bet on both teams to score was won in the middle of the first half. The same happened in the game between Southampton and Spurs with Bale scoring in the 15th minute and winning my unorthodox bet, based on the fact he had a kid :) The only concern was Newcastle, but a lucky goal from Cisse deep in the game meant all bets for the day won :) I wish all weekends were like that and now the stats are getting better and better. After the first 17 bets on this blog the ROI reached the fantastic 133.25%! Of course I do not expect more than 115% in the long term, but who knows :) Enough with the past though, it is time to look in the future and this week we have Capital One Cup:


Pick 18
Event: Leeds - Southampton
Pick: Leeds to win
Odds: 2.62 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: Both teams are not in their best shape recently, but my bet here is based purely on different approach to this cup between lower league teams and Premiership clubs. Leeds will be willing the win more and they managed to beat at home a very good team like Everton in the last round. Southampton, on the other hand, will be thinking mostly about the Premier League, where they are struggling a lot and I am sure the manager Nigel Adkins won't be too bothered about the Capital One Cup. Medium stakes since I don't really like this competition.

I think Adkins will be thinking more about the Premier League.

Pick 19
Event: Wigan - Bradford
Pick: Wigan -1EH
Odds: 1.91 @ 888sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: This pick is based purely on the huge difference in class between League 2 and the Premier League and the fact Wigan are better in attack than in defense. I don't think the visitors will be able to put them under pressure, and I expect Wigan to create plenty of chances, so a medium stake here too.

Tomorrow I will post some more picks, good luck everyone :)

Good Saturday and picks for Sunday

Hello guys,

The weekend started very well and I managed to land three out of four picks yesterday for a solid profit. As I expected the Arsenal - QPR game was very tight and the visitors tried a very negative tactics. They weren't many chances until late in the game and the home win with 1:0 was great for me both as a punter and an Arsenal supporter :) Elsewhere Reading and Fulham both score, actually three times each and Wigan and West Ham left it late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 line. For today I have Bale to score (published in the blog on Friday), but I think there is value in two more picks:

Pick 16
Event: Newcastle - West Brom
Pick: Newcastle to win
Odds: 2.00 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Newcastle are improving their shape recently and have 3 wins from 3 games in Europe and also played very well in the derby against Sunderland last week. They will only miss the suspended Tiote, while West Brom are missing skipper Brunt and Reid. West Brom are unconvincing away from home with three draws and a heavy loss against Fulham, so I believe the host will be able to win here.

Tiote is out after a reckless tackle against Sunderland.

Pick 17
Event: Everton - Liverpool
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.73 @ Bet365
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I expect a fierce derby of Merseyside and I wouldn't try to predict the outcome. Everton will miss Felainni and Pienaar, but still have a lot of fire power upfront and Liverpool are more stable recently. Skipper Gerrard normally plays his best games against Everton and ManU, and I expect the same today. I believe both teams will search for the victory and will manage to score goals.

Few more EPL bets

Hi guys,
I've done my Saturday routine, which includes breakfast and exploring odds for the EPL matchday and here are the picks I like:

Pick 14
Event: Reading - Fulham
Pick: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.62 @ Bet365 (offered by various bookies)
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Well, in this game both this are capable than scoring, but also their defenses are not very solid. All of Reading's home games this season were GG and most of Fulham's away games too. Both teams have most of their attacking players fit, so I can easily see them both scoring.


Pick 15
Event: Wigan - West Ham
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Pretty much the same as the other game - Wigan tend to score some goals, but they also concede often. West Ham are normally capable of keeping a clean sheet, but that applies to their home games, away is a different story. I expect a lot of goals in this game and if you are more adventurous you can also try over 3.5.


Good luck and have a profitable day :)

Europa league results and first picks for the weekend

Hi guys,

It was a dramatic Europa League evening with many late goals and some picks won and lost in the last minutes of the game. Overall, it was a good day and it ended up with 3 bets won and 2 lost and some decent profit.
The under 2.5 on San Siro won easily with Inter struggling to find a way past Partizan till the end of the game, and the most dangerous moment was in the first half when the Serbian side hit the bar. Elsewhere Genk managed to beat Sporting, despite falling behind early and that brought a nice profit, while Helsingborg and Hannover left it very late, but still managed to cover the over 2.5 goal line. However, the luck in this game was compensated by the stupid way Athletico Madrid conceded at the end of their game despite being solid through the whole match. The other bet lost was the low stake on Maribor to beat Tottenham - the hosts took the lead, but didn't manage to hold on to it. I probably should've taken some AH bet for this game, cause it was the safer option, but I will be more careful in the future.

So, with the European competitions gone it is time for some betting on domestic leagues. Here are my first picks for this weekend:

Pick 11
Event: Southampton - Tottenham
Pick: Gareth Bale to score anytime
Odds: 3.00 @ 888Sport
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The traditional and more common reasoning behind this bet is simple - Southampton have the worst defense in the league and Tottenham are playing very well recently. The Saints are conceding many goals this season even at home, while the visitors are in top shape. Bale in particular is in good form and he missed the last two games, so he should be fresh for this one. However, there is another angle here, that makes me think there is value here. The Welsh star is now a proud father after last weekend and I feel he will be willing to score a goal and dedicate it to his child as most football players do. This will make him want to find the net even more and this extra motivation is the reason I am going for this bet.

I hope the newborn daughter will give Bale something extra.

Pick 12
Event: Arsenal - QPR
Pick: Under 3 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I am quite surprised by the odds of under 3 for this game for numerous reasons. First of all, Arsenal's biggest problem currently is the lack of fresh legs upfront. In their last two games against Norwich and Schalke they didn't create enough chances, in fact they did not create any chances. Despite the possible return of some players, I can't see huge difference for this game. Also, I expect QPR to lie deep in their own half with a very negative tactics and I think Arsenal might be able to keep a clean sheet here. In general, my expectations are for a hard fought home win lie 1:0, 2:0 max. Still, I am taking the under 3 line, since it is more safe and the odds are still very good.

Pick 13
Event: Stoke - Sunderland
Pick. Stoke to win
Odds: 2.10 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: After two away games good old Stoke are playing at home against  a rather inconsistent Sunderland side. This is a great chance for the hosts to climb up the table and I think they will be able to expose the defensive weakness in their opponents. As for the other side of the pitch - Sunderland look toothless and were lucky to score against a 10-men Newcastle and I think Stoke can contain them. Full stake for a home win.


This is it for today, I will probably post some more picks tomorrow morning, good luck everyone :)

CL recap and two more picks for Europa League

Hello guys,

The second day of the Champions League competition wasn't very good with two picks lost and one won. PSG did the job and won 2:0 which made a decent profit, but Arsenal and City both lost their matches and the end result of the first four picks is a small profit. I probably shouldn't have bet on Arsenal, but their home record in Europe mislead me. As for City, clearly they are currently just a domestic side, very surprising considering the amount of world class players they have though.
I hope for a better luck today with Europa League and I have two more picks for the competition:

Pick 9
Event: Atletico Madrid - Academica
Pick: Atletico to win to nil
Odds: 1.83 @ SkyBet
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Everybody expect the very solid Atletico to win at home against Academica and I think the same. However, the odds for that are quite low and are not worth the shot imo. On the other hand, the solid defense of the Spaniards recently makes me think they should be able to keep a clean sheet and is the reason I am taking the 1.83 for a win to nil at SkyBet. Academica have scored in most of their recent games, but still they haven't faced such a good team as Atletico and that makes me think the hosts should be able to do the job.

The man is flying, but I hope the defense does the job tonight.

Pick 10
Event: Inter Milan - Partizan
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.12 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: I feel Partizan will go to Italy and try to get a point with deep defense. The Italians are not doing very well upfront and I don't think they will be able to cover the line themselves and Partizan are also rather weak. My only concern is an early goal, but hopefully there won't be any, so I will try this bet.

This is it for today, good luck everyone :)

Time for Europa League

Hi guys,

The first pick in this blog was successful and I hope this is a good sign :) Spartak and Benfica did the job in the first half and the bet on over 2.5 is a win. Today we will see what happens with the other CL picks, but now it is time for some Europa League. After taking a deep look at some stats and info about the games, here is what I find attractive as odds:

Pick 5
Event: Genk - Sporting Lisboa
Pick: Genk +0 AH
Odds: 1.91 @ Will Hill
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: This bet is based purely on the shape of the two teams in both domestic and European competitions. Genk are unbeaten in a number of games and are doing very well especially at home. Sporting on the other hand got dumped from the Portuguese cup, got beaten by Porto and were also demolished by Videoton in the last round of Europa League. Obviously, they are not in their best shape and this is why I think the home side is the favorite here. I am taking the AH bet, since it is the safer option and the bet will be void in a case of a draw.

Pick 6
Event: Helsingborg - Hannover
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams seem more than capable of scoring in both their domestic leagues and in Europe. The visitors managed to score twice in both of their first two games and also conceded at least a goal in five of their last six games. Helsingborg on the other hand manage to score at least a goal in most of their home games, so I expect them do it again here. This makes me think there will be some goals in this game and the odds in Pini look good value to me.

Pick 7
Event: Maribor - Tottenham
Pick: Maribor
Odds: 5.41 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Well, this pick may seem strange to many, but I feel that the hosts can produce a surprise here. They are playing very well at home in European competitions and as most Eastern European teams they are highly motivated to perform well in this tournament. This is not the case with the English club, and although manager Villas Boas says it is important to him and also picks strong sides, the players attitude is different and the biggest proof is the stupid draw against a very weak Panathinaikos team. This is why I find the odds for a home win pretty good and I will give it a shot with a small stake.

Villas Boas is highly motivated, but what about his players?

While I was looking at the odds for Europa League I couldn't help to see the odds for Arsenal win today too and this is why I am adding another pick for CL here:

Pick 8
Event: Arsenal - Schalke
Pick: Arsenal to win
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: It is obvious that Schalke are in good shape, while Arsenal are having some issues currently, but still 2.15 seems too high. The Gunners are the better team in general, they play very well at home and they haven't lost there for ages (in CL of course) and they are much more experienced in the competition. I just don't feel the price is right here and that is why I am taking the bet.

This is it, good luck to everyone and don't hesitate to share your opinion :)

Let's Rock'N Roll!

Hello dear readers,

I assume I am talking to myself since this is my first post in the blog and no one will be reading it, but you gotta start somehow:) The idea of this blog is to post my sports betting picks, and I hope this will help me be more disciplined, to keep a good tracking record of my picks and eventually find some other tipsters with whom I could share ideas and picks.
I won't be revealing much information about myself, except for a fact I am proud Arsenal supporter :) I will bet mostly on football and rarely on other sports like Formula 1, Tennis, Volleyball and other stuff. I will use variable stakes and although I don't have a mathematical system behind my bets, I won't try to predict the outcome of games, I will try to evaluate them and find markets, that contain value, since I believe this is the only way to make money:) That and having some inside info about fixed games, but since I don't have such, I will have to do it the hard way :)
I think this short introduction is enough and it is time to start with the serious part - there is Champions League this week and I can see some great picks available:

Pick 1
Event: Zenit - Anderlecht
Pick: Zenit (-1 EH)
Odds: 2.50 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I can't resist to get max stakes here, since the hosts really need this win in order to keep some chances of going through to the knockout stage. Zenit is the much better team in paper and despite the bad start, they are showing signs of improvement and should be able to win this game comfortably. It is also good to mention that the two teams met in the Europa League group stage last year and the Russians won both games with 3:1.

I hope Hulk is in good shape :)

Pick 2
Event: Dinamo Zagreb - PSG
Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 2.63 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Everybody is expecting PSG to win here and you ca easily see why - they are the better team and they desperately need the points. However, the odds for win are not too high and I am not sure there is value in them. That is why I prefer the option PSG to win to nil - Dinamo have no goals yet, they seem pretty toothless and the defense of the French team is solid. Big stakes, since I think the value is good.

Pick 3
Event: Ajax - Manchester City
Pick: Manchester City to win
Odds: 1.80 @ Interwetten
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Man City managed to somehow get a point from the game against Dortmund and this was really vital, since it keeps their chances to go to the knockout stages. However, they have to take 6 points from the two games with Ajax in order to be in a good position. They are the much better team and the morale is great after the had fought victory against West Brom at the weekend. That is why I think odds of 1.8 are good enough to go for it.

Joe Hart is the main reason City got a point in their last CL game.

Pick 4
Event: Spartak Moscow - Benfica
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: Both teams are with their back against the wall and need to win this, especially the Russians. They played decent games against Celtic and Barca, but got beaten in both of them with late goals. It seems they are capable of scoring, but also concede easily and Benfica has the fire power to capitalize. I expect a tough and open game with many goals, since the losing side is out and a draw is no good for both teams.


This is it for today, I will probably post my Europa League pick tomorrow and will try to find some more value in the CL :)

Good luck!