Hello again,
I was thinking about the game and I feel this is the perfect chance for Theo Walcott to score. He already should be fully fit, he will most probably start and surely there will be a lot space to exploit. Especially at the end of the game, when Napoli will most likely have to push. This is the reason I am adding another bet for the game:
Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Theo Walcott to score anytime
Odds: 4.33 @ William Hill
Stake:2/10
Good luck everyone
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Weekend recap and a Champions League pick
Hi guys,
As you probably noticed, I didn't put more picks for this weekend, cause I was somewhat insecure and didn't want to risk it with bets, that I am not sure there is value in. However, my only pick that Newcastle won't lose at Old Trafford was a success as the Magpies even managed to win. This means the bad start is now behind me. Now it is time for a bet in the Champions League:
Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal + 0AH
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The Gunner are in great shape and need just a point in order to win the group. Napoli on the other hand, will have to win by 3 goals to be certain of qualification and are not doing great recently with only 1 win in 5 games and a lot of goals conceded. This makes me think the home team will have to push hard from the start and will leave a lot of space in the back. The Gooners are very solid in defense and more than capable to keep to take advantage on the counter. This is the reason I am expecting a win for the visitors, but since they don't really need it and might settle for a draw, I am going for the safer DNB bet. As for the team news - both teams will use their best and Arsene Wenger specifically said he won't rest players.
Good luck :)
As you probably noticed, I didn't put more picks for this weekend, cause I was somewhat insecure and didn't want to risk it with bets, that I am not sure there is value in. However, my only pick that Newcastle won't lose at Old Trafford was a success as the Magpies even managed to win. This means the bad start is now behind me. Now it is time for a bet in the Champions League:
Event: Napoli - Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal + 0AH
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: The Gunner are in great shape and need just a point in order to win the group. Napoli on the other hand, will have to win by 3 goals to be certain of qualification and are not doing great recently with only 1 win in 5 games and a lot of goals conceded. This makes me think the home team will have to push hard from the start and will leave a lot of space in the back. The Gooners are very solid in defense and more than capable to keep to take advantage on the counter. This is the reason I am expecting a win for the visitors, but since they don't really need it and might settle for a draw, I am going for the safer DNB bet. As for the team news - both teams will use their best and Arsene Wenger specifically said he won't rest players.
Good luck :)
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Recap and early weekend pick
Hi guys,
After the bad start in the weekend, yesterday was a much better day. As I expected, Arsenal outplayed Hull and won 2:0 which was probably the least they could get, but still enough to cover the handicap. My other bet looked lost at some point, but West Brom managed to score two late goals against City and it was void at the end. This means most of the loss is recovered and it is time to look forwards.
It is still early to bet on this week's games, but I want to take one bet right now, cause I am not sure if the odds will stay the same. Here we go:
Event: Manchester United - Newcastle
Pick: Newcastle + 1AH
Odds: 2.27 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: The most obvious reason for this one is the huge crisis in Manchester United. However, there is more to it than the bad shape of the team. Rooney will miss this game due to suspension and van Persie is doubtful and there are even rumors that he is has some kind of conflict with Moyes. What's certain for this game is that the pressure is on United, they will lack their best players and Newcastle are a team capable of taking something in this situation.
After the bad start in the weekend, yesterday was a much better day. As I expected, Arsenal outplayed Hull and won 2:0 which was probably the least they could get, but still enough to cover the handicap. My other bet looked lost at some point, but West Brom managed to score two late goals against City and it was void at the end. This means most of the loss is recovered and it is time to look forwards.
It is still early to bet on this week's games, but I want to take one bet right now, cause I am not sure if the odds will stay the same. Here we go:
Event: Manchester United - Newcastle
Pick: Newcastle + 1AH
Odds: 2.27 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10
Analysis: The most obvious reason for this one is the huge crisis in Manchester United. However, there is more to it than the bad shape of the team. Rooney will miss this game due to suspension and van Persie is doubtful and there are even rumors that he is has some kind of conflict with Moyes. What's certain for this game is that the pressure is on United, they will lack their best players and Newcastle are a team capable of taking something in this situation.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Terrible start and the new picks for midweek
Hi guys,
Unfortunately, the restart of the blog was pretty bad with all three bets losing. The Arsenal pick was quite accurate, but two late goals from the Gunners meant the bet is lost, while the other two were rather misjudged on my side. I really though Fulham will put an effort in order to save Martin Jol, but that was not the case and in spite of some good chances, there were no goals in the Villa game.
However, I am here for the long run profit, so 3 lost bets won't bring me down :) There is a good chance of making up this week with a bunch of matches, so here we go:
Event: Arsenal - Hull City
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 AH
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I rarely put 10/10, but I am quite shocked by the odds in this one. Arsenal are flying at the moment with both their defense and offense working very well. There are a number of players that can score and the defense managed 5 clean sheets in the last 6 games. On the other hand, despite a decent start of the season and recent win against Liverpool, Hull does not seem like a team that can stop the Gunners. The odds seem great, so this is my main bet for the day.
Event: West Brom - Man City
Pick: West Brom + 1 AH
Odds: 2.01 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Once again, after a good victory at home bookies seem to think Man City will start winning away too. Well, I thought the same way after the huge win against ManU and a bunch of other great games at home, but the fact is City are not doing well away from Etihad. In fact, they lost a number of points away against weaker teams than West Brom. This is the reason why I believe the home side could take something from the game today and the odds for this line seem insane to me. The only reason why I am not putting 10 units here too is that I hate to make two max stake bets at the same time.
I really like some of the other games too, but I prefer to wait for the teams and add some live bets, since there might be some rotation today.
Best of luck :)
Unfortunately, the restart of the blog was pretty bad with all three bets losing. The Arsenal pick was quite accurate, but two late goals from the Gunners meant the bet is lost, while the other two were rather misjudged on my side. I really though Fulham will put an effort in order to save Martin Jol, but that was not the case and in spite of some good chances, there were no goals in the Villa game.
However, I am here for the long run profit, so 3 lost bets won't bring me down :) There is a good chance of making up this week with a bunch of matches, so here we go:
Event: Arsenal - Hull City
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 AH
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10/10
Analysis: I rarely put 10/10, but I am quite shocked by the odds in this one. Arsenal are flying at the moment with both their defense and offense working very well. There are a number of players that can score and the defense managed 5 clean sheets in the last 6 games. On the other hand, despite a decent start of the season and recent win against Liverpool, Hull does not seem like a team that can stop the Gunners. The odds seem great, so this is my main bet for the day.
Event: West Brom - Man City
Pick: West Brom + 1 AH
Odds: 2.01 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
Analysis: Once again, after a good victory at home bookies seem to think Man City will start winning away too. Well, I thought the same way after the huge win against ManU and a bunch of other great games at home, but the fact is City are not doing well away from Etihad. In fact, they lost a number of points away against weaker teams than West Brom. This is the reason why I believe the home side could take something from the game today and the odds for this line seem insane to me. The only reason why I am not putting 10 units here too is that I hate to make two max stake bets at the same time.
I really like some of the other games too, but I prefer to wait for the teams and add some live bets, since there might be some rotation today.
Best of luck :)
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Premier League Tips for the weekend
Hi guys,
As promised yesterday, I am starting to support the blog again and today I will post my first picks for this season. So, after some careful consideration, here are my suggestions:
Event: Aston Villa - Sunderland
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: If you look at the last few games of both teams, you will find mostly unders which probably explains the good odds for this match. However, I feel there is a perfectly reasonable explanation - Villa had issues with the fitness of the likes of Benteke and Agbonlahor, I think Weimann also wasn't fully fit and this caused them problems with scoring goals. I think they are fine now and this should mean more attacking strength for the home side. On the other hand, Sunderland are playing much better since Gus Poyet is their manager, but they suffered some bad luck with referee decisions which meant they had to play most of their games very tight with 10 men and hope to get something. Despite that, they've shown tremendous improvement in their style and are now passing the ball much better and creating some good chances. I think it is time for their bad luck to end and I expect that both teams will score today and one of them at least twice, which will be enough to cover the line I chose.
Event: Cardiff - Arsenal
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I really like the spirit of the home side, they've shown they've got that battling mentality and also some good quality and I think they have a decent chance of surviving in the League. However, today they are facing a very strong Arsenal team that looks phenomenal this season. As you would expect, the odds for the Gunners are pretty low, so I think I will go for the unders here. Arsenal managed 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games - their defense is very solid, very drilled and Szczesny is probably the keeper in best form in the league right now. Considering the tough schedule with two games per week the EPL leaders are not afraid to rely on their defense and not put too much effort. Also, their away record is great and they really haven't conceded more than once away this season, which is a great achievement. This makes me think the Gunners will manage to win again with a clean sheet and the price for that is great.
Event: West Ham - Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 AH
Odds: 3.54 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Many people will probably be surprised by this pick, since Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league this year. This is obviously true, but both of the team's wins came away from home and West Ham are probably the worst side at home and haven't won a game since the opening weekend. Also, this is one of the last chances of Martin Jol to save his job and this makes me think it will be a close game and the visitors might just nick it and the odds for the DNB are looking great to me.
Well, this is it for now guys. I wish you good luck and enjoy the Premier League this weekend :)
As promised yesterday, I am starting to support the blog again and today I will post my first picks for this season. So, after some careful consideration, here are my suggestions:
Event: Aston Villa - Sunderland
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6/10
Analysis: If you look at the last few games of both teams, you will find mostly unders which probably explains the good odds for this match. However, I feel there is a perfectly reasonable explanation - Villa had issues with the fitness of the likes of Benteke and Agbonlahor, I think Weimann also wasn't fully fit and this caused them problems with scoring goals. I think they are fine now and this should mean more attacking strength for the home side. On the other hand, Sunderland are playing much better since Gus Poyet is their manager, but they suffered some bad luck with referee decisions which meant they had to play most of their games very tight with 10 men and hope to get something. Despite that, they've shown tremendous improvement in their style and are now passing the ball much better and creating some good chances. I think it is time for their bad luck to end and I expect that both teams will score today and one of them at least twice, which will be enough to cover the line I chose.
Event: Cardiff - Arsenal
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: I really like the spirit of the home side, they've shown they've got that battling mentality and also some good quality and I think they have a decent chance of surviving in the League. However, today they are facing a very strong Arsenal team that looks phenomenal this season. As you would expect, the odds for the Gunners are pretty low, so I think I will go for the unders here. Arsenal managed 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games - their defense is very solid, very drilled and Szczesny is probably the keeper in best form in the league right now. Considering the tough schedule with two games per week the EPL leaders are not afraid to rely on their defense and not put too much effort. Also, their away record is great and they really haven't conceded more than once away this season, which is a great achievement. This makes me think the Gunners will manage to win again with a clean sheet and the price for that is great.
 |
| The Pole in goal is great this season. |
Event: West Ham - Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 AH
Odds: 3.54 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3/10
Analysis: Many people will probably be surprised by this pick, since Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league this year. This is obviously true, but both of the team's wins came away from home and West Ham are probably the worst side at home and haven't won a game since the opening weekend. Also, this is one of the last chances of Martin Jol to save his job and this makes me think it will be a close game and the visitors might just nick it and the odds for the DNB are looking great to me.
 |
| Jol needs to win some points or he is finished. |
Well, this is it for now guys. I wish you good luck and enjoy the Premier League this weekend :)
Thursday, November 28, 2013
The blog is coming back:)
Hello guys,
If there someone left reading this blog, I want to apologize for taking such a long break. I had some issues in my life and also a lot of work at my regular job, I also spend a lot of time playing poker and actually there was no time left for the blog.
Since now I have more time and the new season already started and I have a good idea about the teams in the Premier League, I decided to start writing and posting my tips again. I will keep the stats from last year and post a new column with stats for this year only.
This season is going well for me, I made some money already and my favorite Arsenal is rocking, so I hope this continues :)
Cheers and expect a post about this weekend tomorrow. As always, all kinds of comments will be highly appreciated.
If there someone left reading this blog, I want to apologize for taking such a long break. I had some issues in my life and also a lot of work at my regular job, I also spend a lot of time playing poker and actually there was no time left for the blog.
Since now I have more time and the new season already started and I have a good idea about the teams in the Premier League, I decided to start writing and posting my tips again. I will keep the stats from last year and post a new column with stats for this year only.
This season is going well for me, I made some money already and my favorite Arsenal is rocking, so I hope this continues :)
Cheers and expect a post about this weekend tomorrow. As always, all kinds of comments will be highly appreciated.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
More Premier league tips
Hi guys,
I have two quick tips for the Premier League:
Event: Manchester City - Reading
Pick: City -2.5AH
Odds: 2.02 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The line was covered in both of the last two Reading games against Sunderland and Arsenal. I really don't see a reason why the terrible run shouldn't continue here, especially considering the opponent. The terrible Reading defense could easilly concede a couple, while it will be pretty hard for them to score against City.
Event: Southampton - Sunderland
Pick: Saints -0.75AH
Odds: 2.33 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: The Saints found their shape and are on a decent run recently, especially at home. They are unbeaten for 4 games, two of which are victories, On the other hand, Sunderland are not very good since the start of the season and are not doing well away from home. The only important miss is Lallana, but I feel the hosts could win this one with more than a goal.
This is it, gl all :)
I have two quick tips for the Premier League:
Event: Manchester City - Reading
Pick: City -2.5AH
Odds: 2.02 @ 188bet
Stake: 5/10
Analysis: The line was covered in both of the last two Reading games against Sunderland and Arsenal. I really don't see a reason why the terrible run shouldn't continue here, especially considering the opponent. The terrible Reading defense could easilly concede a couple, while it will be pretty hard for them to score against City.
Event: Southampton - Sunderland
Pick: Saints -0.75AH
Odds: 2.33 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
Analysis: The Saints found their shape and are on a decent run recently, especially at home. They are unbeaten for 4 games, two of which are victories, On the other hand, Sunderland are not very good since the start of the season and are not doing well away from home. The only important miss is Lallana, but I feel the hosts could win this one with more than a goal.
This is it, gl all :)
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